What makes free and fair different in the East

By Kusal Perera

The east has now become a battleground for interpreting democracy. The President claims the PC elections in the east would be an ideal example for democracy in comparison to all other elections. Whatever that example is and whatever lesson one would learn from it, it could never be assessed and analysed by “numbers and percentages” in interpreting democracy. There again, whatever the interpretation, the East would have to either kneel down with its heavily tortured social life in front of an armed group, the government claims is very democratic and live under licensed suppression, or try out a different leadership that opposes armed politics altogether and still live through an extended armed conflict. That second choice would leave an experienced, brutal armed group as the opposition in the Eastern PC with open and official government backing as the TMVP and UPFA are one in the same nomination lists. The choice for the eastern polity therefore would reduce to what is comparatively less bad and not what is best for the East.

Entrenched within this reality in the practical life of the East, is the future developments in the south as well. Except for the Pillayan led TMVP, all others have gone from the political south (meaning those who predominantly live with the politics of the Sinhala south) to the East, to come back with a result that could be interpreted to the South as their mandate to play politics in the south. With Pillayan’s TMVP providing the oppressive hand for the Rajapaksa glove, the bottom line remains in how much power the East could give those contesting the elections, to wield their influence more in the south.

It is for this reason the government wants the south in particular and the world at large to accept the PC elections in the East as free and fair. And it is for the opposite reason the SLMC/UNP and others in the fray want to contradict the government and prove it is not a free and fair election.

Free and fair elections were declared as impossible in the East by the Opposition including the JVP, with the Pillayan group running around carrying weapons with tacit government support even before the LG elections in Batticaloa. But then with PAFFREL giving credence to that election, the Opposition could not avoid contesting the PC elections to the east. With the credibility of PAFFREL openly challenged after its two decade plus history, monitoring the East PC elections have become a totally new issue with two more new outfits, CAFFE and SL Polls Watch entering the scene with their own reports..

Not only PAFFREL, but the other two new entities monitoring election campaigns, CAFFE and SL Polls Watch are talking of what they are trained to check in monitoring elections. They are perhaps reaching out to have more complaints recorded in their reports that PAFFREL may be accused of ignoring. They are definitely out to see the numbers of election related assaults, threats to life, abductions, killings, unregistered vehicles on the roads, white vans, blocking of election rallies, use of State resources and State media, etc., etc. These numbers do give meaning to what a free and fair election could be. But is that everything in East PC elections ? There is a serious politico-military factor in the east that is not brought out in answering issues related to election violence. It is this factor that had grown and evolved with savage intensity that obstructs and denies a free and fair election in the East.

The Citizens’ Committee was killed off during the IPKF backed EPRLF regime as the North-East PC. The East in particular became politically militarised with the LTTE challenging the military might of the IPKF from October 10th 1987. The EPRLF as the PC authority could not exert much influence in those parts outside the East with the war on and they concentrated in establishing their militarised administration in the East with the IPKF helping out with policing, banking, transporting and other civil work as well. Thereafter the fall of the North – East PC, the packing off of the IPKF and the EPRLF deserting the East in 1990, led to a change of military power in the east. The power vacuum was immediately filled by the LTTE, once again surfacing as a formidable force in the East. With the courting between the Premadasa regime and the LTTE coming to an end by 1991, the war swallowed the bits and pieces of social life there were.

Thereafter, except for a brief period from end 1993 to mid 1995, when the East enjoyed a respite from war starting during the tenure of President Wijetunge, that allowed for LG elections in early 1994, the general elections in August 1994 and the Presidential elections in November the same year, the East had always been living with a bloody war till the CFA was signed in 2002 February. This CFA was not given the political advantage of making space for confidence building and managing conflict. It was humiliated and violated to leave us with a war more brutal than what was there previously. The justification for TMVP carrying arms is just that. They are still under threat from the LTTE despite government claims of clearing the east of the LTTE.

Here lies the paradox of the democracy in the east. To begin with, living with these brutal and bloody calamities the east had never been able to survive with a social fabric that could stand against militarising due to the bloody protracted nature of the war after the IPKF intervention. The role of the Citizens’ Committee that one witnessed previously was never in force.Thereafter the IPKF propped N-E PC folded up in 1990 , it was armed players who called the shots in the East and not the people. People, especially the Tamil people in Tamil villages could not have their social organisations unless the armed players in the area wanted them. The Tamil people were always at the receiving end, with opposing armed groups wanting to ensure the villages did not have infiltrations from their “enemy group” and the State security forces wanting to eliminate LTTE work among the Tamil people. This was at times thought possible through ethnic rivalry. Within all this militarization and provoked ethnic rivalry, even the State administration was brought under direct control of the State security forces.

There was thus no space for civil life even within the Tsunami rehabilitation work where most aid agencies had to comply with security requirements. In fact all temporary shelters where Tsunami affected people still live is under a double scrutiny, with State authorities hovering around to keep tab of LTTE infiltration and Pillayan after Karuna Amman also stalking the lives of the displaced. To these displaced were added another innocent lot from the so called “liberation of the East from Tiger claws”. There are now over 200,000 “refugees” diplomatically labelled as “internally displaced persons” who are at the mercy of the armed groups and government security authorities, that dictate terms in their every day life. Worst among them again are the Tamil people.

Do remember that with all these negative developments that have eroded any possibility of the people living and thinking independently for over a decade, where they first have to think how secure their lives would be if they acted independent of the armed TMVP and then the LTTE as silent trespassers now, the numbers of election violence give little meaning to freedom and democracy. With all logistics and infrastructure controlled by the State security forces and the Pillayan group having access to all that, numbers of election related violence have little impact on the lives of the already subdued and threatened lives in the East.

It is in such a tortured and torn society that election monitoring is done as if numbers matter. It is within this savagely numbed social life that Pillayan threatens opposition candidates and numbers are given unnecessary importance. People would never be a deciding factor in this game of armed conflict that is now wrapped up in this election of power wrenching.

Either way, Pillayan winning or losing, numbers of election related violence increasing or decreasing, elections being free and fair or heavily rigged, East will not have democracy under a PC that would any way have to maintain a heavy military presence to exist. It is this truth that is not being said in the South. For the South is made to believe armed suppression in the name of peace could democratise a society. The worst is, the Sinhala South prefers to believe it too. [dailymirror.lk]

6 comments May 7th, 2008

The regime is challenged in the Eastern polls

by Harim Peiris

The Eastern Provincial Council elections are around the corner and as Easterners and the rest of the nation await the outcome of the polls not much can be gained by speculating regarding its outcome. However the situation in the East raises issues that will remain long after the polls are over and pose challenges to the government at the centre and the winners of the provincial polls.

With regards the election, the regime’s UPFA/ TMVP alliance faces a formidable challenge from the UNP/SLMC combine. In a multi ethnic polity such as the East, with a majority of Tamil and Muslim people, the natural Sinhala constituency of the UPFA is in short supply. However, the UPFA can be counted on to easily win a significant majority of the Sinhala vote in the Ampara and Trincomalee Districts, which make up about 23% of the provincial electorate. Assuming a near 80% of the Sinhala vote goes to the UPFA, it immediately bags about 18% of the popular vote.

The SLMC will, contesting under the UNP banner dominate the Muslim vote. Both NUA and the Ashroff Congress have been steadily losing ground to the SLMC and the presence of the senior most SLMC leadership at the top of the UNP ballot should enable the SLMC to dominate the Muslim vote in much the same way as the UPFA will dominate the Sinhala vote. A 65% Muslim vote to the SLMC would immediately provide the UNP/SLMC combine then with little over 20% of the popular vote.

The above would mean that the election would be decided by the Tamil vote in the three districts and how this would go is anyone’s guess. The TMVP dominated the recent Batticalore District local polls, but that was in a pretty much one horse race, where the UNP did not contest. Mr.Ranil Wickremasinghe beat out President Rajapaksa in the Batticaloa District in the Presidential elections of November 2005, but that was sans a Tamil candidate and much water has flowed under the bridge since then. However Ranil’s win in Batticaloain 2005 was despite the LTTE boycott and the Karuna Group (the TMVP’s predecessor organization)’s endorsement of the Rajapaksa candidacy, showing that the Tamil voter of the Batticaloa District bucked both the LTTE’s boycott and the Karuna / TMVP’s endorsement of his opponent, to vote for Ranil. While the TMVP can still be expected to deliver a victory in Batticaloa, not least because it is still armed and has state patronage, while its opponents have neither, its appeal amongst the Tamils of the Trincomalee and Ampara Districts are a greater unknown and the divisions within the TMVP between old “Col”.Karuna loyalists and the now dominant Pillayan faction may also be to its disadvantage amongst the Tamil polity in the East.

Even a relatively free poll would hence pose a significant challenge to the regime with its success in the East, dependent upon the Tamil voter and whether the Tamils of the East would be electorally rewarding the “liberators of the East”.

However significant issues will remain in the Eastern Province long after the dust settles on this election. First among them would be to resolving the simmering ethnic tensions that exist amongst the populace and which have been exacerbated by the elections. Tensions exist not only between the Sinhala and Tamil people, especially in the Trincomalee District, but also between Muslims and Tamils in Batticaloa and even Ampara.

The Provincial Council system itself is under serious challenge, with much of the powers of the Province wrested back to the Centre, through political and bureaucratic manoeuvrings. The lack of revenue raising capability for a provincial administration means that in the all important area of finance it is totally dependent on the Government at the Centre and the ability to deliver to the populace accordingly constrained. Given that the Government touts the 13th amendment to the constitution and the provincial councils as the cornerstone or bedrock of its devolution goals and solution to the ethnic problem, the success of a provincial administration in whether the North or the East or both would be important in enhancing the credibility of this proposition.

The Eastern rising or the rehabilitation and reconstruction program under the direction of the Senior Presidential Advisor and the Ministry of Nation Building would have to both proceed at a pace and with an inclusive process that takes into account community sensitivities and does no harm to communal harmony while desisting from gerrymandering with the demographic patterns in the East.

The above electoral and socio political situation in the East poses significant challenges to the regime in the East and we can only wish the political leadership of various political hues the very best as they seek to navigate these challenges to create a truly better future for all the peoples of the East. [dailymirror.lk]

(The writer was an advisor to and spokesman for former President Kumaratunga from 2001 to 2005).

Add comment May 7th, 2008