The APRC Conclave and the Cold War Between Hawks and Doves
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
The All Party Representative Committee proceedings are in the eye of a political storm. The recent decision to adjourn sittings indefinitely has lent itself to different interpretations.
Chief among them is a notion that the APRC has failed to evolve anything tangible after protracted meetings exceeding forty in number. But this impression is wrong because the APRC has quietly made progress on a number of matters.
Prof . Vitharana in an interview to a Colombo newspaper outlined crisply some of the APRC decisions to date. They are as follow -
-The province to remain the unit of devolution but the district to be strengthened as an administrative unit within the provincial framework and on this basis there should be devolution.
-The Concurrent List, provided for under the 13th Amendment, to be done away with. (This was agreed on in the APRC) Central and provincial lists of devolved subjects to be clearly defined. Executive and legislative powers would be devolved on these levels of administration.
-Within this provincial framework there would be a ‘pyramid of peoples representation’ from the Village Committee and Ward Committee levels up to the Pradeshiya Sabha and district levels. These arrangements will be tied up with the existing administrative systems so that the GA will be the chief executive at the district set up charged with channelling central and provincial funds with corresponding functions for the Divisional Secretary at the divisional level.
- Reduce the danger of separation as a result of power devolution by reiterating the powers of the President as the Head of State – as set out in APRC Chairman’s document. That is intervention by the President through the armed forces and police to defuse any separation threat or even dissolve any provincial government in the face of a separation threat.
- Strengthen the ’spirit of cooperative governance’, as set out in the South African constitution, so that different tiers of government would work cooperatively strengthening and protecting national sovereignty.
Prof Vitharana also told the Colombo newspaper that ” The APRC will be meeting early next week to put into shape its final proposals to resolve the conflict”.He emphasized that the APRC process was very much on track.
Clarifying the factual position, the APRC Chairman said that he had made certain amendments to the document submitted by him earlier to the APRC, on the basis of discussions the forum had conducted on some issues raised within it. These discussions started on Monday.
At Tuesday’s meeting, the representatives of the SLFP and MEP had said that they preferred to show the amended document to their respective party leadership before continuing the deliberations. The APRC had agreed to meet next week following these consultations.
The recent “hiccup” has led to speculation that the APRC has virtually collapsed.This has strengthened opinion that the APRC is a failed exercise.
There are many “pundits” on all sides who have been describing the APRC as a time – buying device of Rajapakse. They have anticipated doom and call it an exercise in futility.
Those supporting the APRC in a positive spirit are depicted as naive and stupid.Vitharana is projected by some as a “wise fool” and others as a “charlatan” working in tandem with Rajapakse.
But many of these commentators fail to grasp what is actually happening out there and why some of us including this columnist continue to support Tissa Vitharana and the APRC.
What is happening now is a re-play of earlier developments related to the APRC. There is a cold war out there betwen the forces of rationality and irrationality, tolerance and intolerance, hegemonism and democracy, centralisation and devolution,oligarchy and pluralism, hawks and doves.
Rajapakse’s intentions were not very honourable in appointing the APRC. It was a ploy to get the International Community and India off his back as they were insisting on a political process.
Many Sinhala rulers have in the past resorted to All party conferences and round – table talks to buy time or ease pressure. Nothing tangible was achieved.
Likewise Rajapakse was treading this time – tested path. With Gotabhaya Rajapakse and Sarath Fonseka promising an early military victory the APRC could be a convenient sideshow to distract and buy time for the military to do its job.
The idea was to alter ground reality through military might and then dictate an imposed solution on the Tamils.
But Rajapakse made one promise that “bound” him publicly. He pledged that he would abide by whatever decision reached at the APRC. Subsequently he re-iterated that position with many leaders and officials.
Rajapakse’s intention seemed to be that of manipulating the APRC into delivering at the correct time, a package that would be confined within the limits of his circumscribed vision known as “Mahinda Chinthana”.
Unfortunately for him there were some people belonging to different ethnicities who were not prepared to play along. These quiet and genuine patriots (as opposed to racist fanatics) were ready to do what was right regardless of might.
So we had the 11 member multi – ethnic majority report coming out. This was the most progressive set of proposals to emerge after the GL – Neelan package of Aug 3rd 1995.When Rajapakse spurned that Vitharana stepped in and came out with his own proposals that incorporated around 85 % of the majority report ontent.
The APRC received a boost when the UNP signed a MOU with the SLFP and participated actively in the APRC. So Rajapakse had to undermine the APRC. The Govt was turned into an Elephant orphanage and 18 UNP’ ers were enticed to cross over.
The UNP that had presented a positive set of proposals stopped attending the APRC but did not quit it altogether. But it then set a deadline before which the APRC should come out with approved proposals.
Rajapakse meanwhile threw another spanner in the works by coming out with SLFP proposals that made the district as devolution unit and the state to be unitary.
Valuable time was lost in discussing these issues. Yet Vitharana’s persistence paid off and finally the APRC has reached agreement on most matters barring two major issues.
What has been happening is a “cold war” within the APRC where a number of small parties have joined together in forging an acceptable package of Constitutional reform.
They are now trying to make Rajapakse abide by his assurance that he would accept and implement whatever decisions reached by the APRC.
Contrary to the impression that it is a “puppet” of Rajapakse the APRC has slowly and steadily turned the tables on him..
The APRC has boomeranged on the Ptresident and threatens to evolve a solution that goes against the grain of Mahinda Rajapakse’s political beliefs, consciousness and agenda.
Rajapakse’s latest move in association with his ideological “guru” JHU is to manouevre around the constituents of his Government.The ace up his sleeve is that almost all party leaders are members of his cabinet.
Tissa Vitharana, DEW Gunasekera, Rauf Hakeem. AHM Athaullah, Ferial Ashraff, P. Chandrasekharan, Riaz Badurdeen. Dinesh Gunewardena are all ministers. Even Thondaman would have been one but for the recent fiasco.
Technically, they are all ministers of the Rajapakse govt because they have all accepted Mahinda Chinthana. A key element of that vision is perpetuating the unitary state.
Another aspect is de – linking the East and “sinhalaising” it. So these party leaders who are also cabinet ministers have to accept Mahinda’s writ.
It remains to be seen whether these party leaders will be able to resist Rajapakse or succumb meekly. If they have the collective will and tenacity to stand firm they could make Rajapakse veer around to their thinking.
But this is a bold gamble and the party leaders must be prepared to resign their ministerial posts on a matter of principle if they fail.
I doubt very much that these cabinet seat ocupants will have that amount of integrity or grit. Their lack of unity is a big stumbling block. If one party takes up a principled stand the another party will do the opposite to curry favour.
Look at the recent “eastern victory” tamasha. Rauf Hakeem adopts a certain position in his Parliamentary speech and explains the reason for his participation. He criticises the regime for hurting Tamil sensibilities by such an elaborate celebration.
But what does Athaullah do? He garlands Rajapakse and wraps a golden shawl around him.Let us also not forget that Hakeem was constrained to join this Govt because many of his sidekicks (like the earlier lot) would have left him and joined the Govt on their own.
Then take the CWC. They take offence at Basil Rajapakse’s high – handedness and pull out. But the party bigwigs are unhappy. Even some MP’s were capable of going the Vadivel Suresh way and re- joining the Govt.
Besides Chandrasekharan utilises the chance to snuggle closer to the Govt. So the CWC eats humble “kanji” and backtracks from its earlier tough stance.
In such a situation it is very unlikely that these party leaders would dare defy Mahinda. But it is in their interest and Rajapakse’s interest to drag matters on instead of making conclusive decisions.
So they could postpone matters and prolong the issue for some time instead of a quick resolution.
Mahinda Rajapakse’s main worry now is Chandrika Kumaratunga. After her return he is concerned that she may entice loyalists and disgruntled elements to cross over as a large group.
If this happens the UNP crossers over could also change sides. Also the Tamil and Muslim parties will also switch sides then.
The acid test will be the budget vote. In such a situation Rajapakse is not likely to risk losing support from all those supporting him.
He will drag matters till November while wooing the JVP. But a determined effort by the smaller parties could unsettle him. But such a prospect seems remote
Compounding the issue further is the divided outlook within the United National Party. Though the UNP announced Aug 15th as a deadline for withdrawal , Wickremasinghe and Choksy later stated in letters to Vitharana that Aug 31st was the deadline.
But Tissa Attanayake says the deadline was August 15th. He says the UNP is out of the APRC.
The UNP signed a MOU with the SLFP and participated enthusiastically in the APRC. But the SLFP engineered mass defection of 18 MP’s from UNP ranks has made the greens hostile.
Now the UNP would love to see the APRC scuttled without blame attaching to itself.
But the UNP seems to be walking into a Rajapakse trap.
One of Mahinda’s stratagems is to create conditions where the UNP finds it impossible to co-operate in the search for a political settlement or Constitutional reform.
If the UNP maintains this tough stance then it will not participate in APRC proceedings. Then Rajapakse can lay the blame on Wickremasinghe for the APRC’s failure.
This was a motivating factor in enticing UNP Parliamentarians. The idea was to make the UNP react angrily and then blame it for not cooperating politically for a solution.
Rajapakse can also trap the UNP in another way. If he succeeds in browbeating the party leaders in his cabinet Rajapakse can impose his writ on the APRC. If so the APRC majority decision will favour things like unitary , de – merger etc.
Then the UNP will be forced to go along with it and lose International Community support externally and minority community support internally.
On the other hand if the UNP does not play along it will risk further erosion of support among Sinhalala people.
The UNP will be caught between a rock and a hard place.
If the UNP is to avoid this dilemma the party must participate fully with the APRC. It must lend political muscle and moral support to those doves within the APRC who are fighting a cold war with the hawks.
Ultimately the International Community must also play a hand. At present the IC is observing APRC proceedings keenly but remains detached because it believes that Sri Lankans must evolve a home – grown settlement.
This does not mean that the IC will support and accept whatever the Rajapakse regime places on the table.
The IC is going along with Rajapakse’s war because it feels that the LTTE has to be pressured militarily. But the IC is clear about the ultimate solution being a political settlement.
However much the antipathy towards the LTTE the IC is sympathetic to the Tamil predicament. It wants a reasonable solution addressing legitimate concerns of the Tamils.
The two sticking points now are the structure of the state and the North – East merger.
Whatever the final outcome it has to be credible in the eyes of the International Community.
According to a Western diplomat based in Colombo there can be no effective solution unless the state becomes federal in nature even if not explicitly stated so. This is not possible as long as the unitary structure of the state is retained.
Also any scheme under a unitary structure cannot be regarded as credible. If a credible offer is not on the table the rationale for pursuing war as a pressuring device to bring the LTTE to the table will be lost.
There is also the fact that Tamil public opinion (regardless of the LTTE) will not accept a solution within a unitary state .
But the IC has not grasped one thing. The Rajapakse regime will not budge from its avowed hawkish position unless pressure is exerted.
For this an important change is necessary in the IC ’s position.
The International Community has clearly and unequivocally ruled out separation. It stands for unity and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka.
But the IC also says that the solution must be acceptable to all sections of the people. It does not stipulate the parameters of the envisaged solution.
Instead of leaving it open – ended the IC must explicitly state that the “unitary” state must go. Only then will the moderates get strengthened and extremists isolated.
The tussle in Sri Lanka is between the Sinhala dominated mono – state and the Tamil inspired separate state. The IC says NO separate state. But it does not say NO unitary state.
This smacks of double standards. More importantly it weakens those striving for a plural state vis a vis the mono and separate statists.
In the struggle between hawks and doves to re -invent Sri Lanka on plural lines the IC cannot remain spectators. It must support the doves.
This will make a big difference in the APRC cold war between hawks and doves.
Ultimately it will help establish lasting peace and durable justice in the Island.
