Converting Military Success to Political Victory in the East
by D.B.S. Jeyaraj
The launching of “Operation Riviresa” in 1995 – 96 saw the Jaffna district in its entirety coming under the Government of Sri Lanka’s (GOSL) writ. It was regarded then as a magnificient military victory . The USA after conducting a fact – finding mission of the Northern peninsula urged the Government headed by Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga to consolidate the military gains by converting it into a political victory. Kumaratunga was advised to make Jaffna a “showpiece” of development and prosperity. Colombo was also requested to advance a political process.
But the Kumaratunga regime did not heed that advice. Lured by the mirage of military conquest the Govt plunged the armed forces into war in the Northern mainland known as Wanni. An ambitious military project titled “Operation Jayasikurui” was set in motion. The political quest was put on hold. Jaffna was held as a military “prize” without much attention being paid to the “hearts and minds” of the Jaffna people. The consequences were disastrous in the Peninsula as well as the mainland.
A decade later Kumaratunga’s successor is in a similiar position. After a protracted 15 month military campaign the armed forces commanded by President Mahinda Rajapakse have brought the entire Eastern province under GOSL domination. The Government is praised and also praises itself for this victory. All sorts of shakes and moves are on to bring about a new political sunrise for the East. In the midst of euphoria the USA has offered words of caution and advice.
US envoy Robert O. Blake Jr in his address at the seminar “Sri Lanka:the Way Forward” on September 21st made some pertinent and illuminating comments about the East. The seminar held at the Galle Face Hotel was sponsored by the US – Sri Lanka Fulbright Commission and the Fulbright Alumni Association of Sri Lanka. Ambassador Blake had this to say about Eastern Sri Lanka.
” Let me a say a word about the stabilization and reconstruction process in the East, which also is an important part of the way forward. ”
“Now that conflict has subsided in the East, the Government has a significant opportunity to stabilize and develop the East in a manner that would demonstrate to all Sri Lankans, but particularly Tamils and Muslims, that they have a bright future within a united Sri Lanka and that the Government is serious about ensuring their rights and providing opportunities equitably within a pluralistic state. In short, a successful transition in the East can be an important confidence builder and a building block for a future negotiation process. ”
“Conversely, the government faces significant risks if it fails to seize its opportunity in the East. Specifically, a failure to effect an orderly transition from military to civilian control, a failure to consult elected representatives of the Tamil, Muslim and Sinhalese communities on the development and other programs now being devised for the East, and a failure to rein in paramilitaries are all likely to destabilize the East and harden minority attitudes about prospects for negotiated settlement. Likewise, resettlement and development plans that change the ethnic composition of eastern districts, restrictions on access to means of livelihood, and slow economic development will produce similar negative effects. ”
What prompted Ambassador Blake to make these well – intentioned observations? Obviously the US envoy like some of his diplomatic colleagues is well aware of what is going on now. The news that comes out of the East is not good. The armed forces may have won the East militarily. But Colombo has not got its act together politically. 75 % of the Province consists of Tamils and Muslims.Territory may have been captured but the hearts and minds of these Tamil – speaking people are yet to be won over. If current trends are any indication the GOSL seems headed for a political defeat there.
There is a lot of news about the East going to “rise” and “re- awaken” and “renew”. But none of this is in Tamil spoken by three- fourths of the Province’s people. In fact the Province is being constantly referred to as “Nagenahira” now. The Tamil language term “Kizhakku”is missing.
This is a province where the ethnic ratio in 1921 was 55% Tamil, 40 % Muslim and 4 % Sinhala. In 1981 when the last official census was taken the ratio was 42 % Tamil, 33% Muslim and 25% Sinhala.
One would expect therefore that the Tamil language be given its due place but the failure of this Govt to accommodate Tamil in the grandiose plans for the East is not only insensitive but a symtom of a deep – seated malaise namely a Sinhala supremacist mindset.
The emphasis on “Nagenahira” to the exclusion of “Kizhakku” is symbolic of this regime’s disdain and contempt for the Tamil and Muslim people of the East. This act of omission and a number of other acts of commission are making many Tamils feel that they are a “conquered” people.
The Tamils and Muslims of the East are being treated as second class citizens. The GOSL thinks that altering the demographic structure of the East through deliberately colonising Sinhala people will help stabilise control. The Tamils and Muslims are being undermined and marginalised. The long term goal is to make the Sinhala community the dominant numerical entity in the East.
What is usually necessary after military operations is to provide relief, rehabilitation and re- construction to the affected people. Displaced people and other victims of war need to be given urgent priority. Re- settlement, restoring basic infra- structural facilities,housing, health care, education, transport, etc are the need of the hour. The revival of lost livelihood is of utmost importance.
These concerns and needs are not being addessed in the way they ought to be. Instead of focussing on bringing back civilian normalcy the region is being excessively militarised. The humanitarian dimension with deep political ramifications is being ignored or overlooked.
It is against this backdrop that Ambassador Blake’s comments need to noted. What the US envoy is talking about is the imperative need to move away from military to civilian control. If the region is to be stabilised and developed then there must be a speedy and orderly transition from military to civilian control. The Tamils and Muslims need to be convinced of a bright future. For this an enlightened approach is necessary. Failure to address this requirement can create conditions for future de – stabilisation
The existential reality today is that the East is being run in a militarised manner.National security has become an all – powerful “manthra”that justifies the diminishing of civilian control and enhancement of military power. The elected Tamil MP’s from the province are sidelined as tiger mouthpieces. The elected Provincial body has been defunct for nearly 17 years.
The local authorities are dysfunctional in many cases and in some, function powerlessly. The civilian bureaucracy goes through the motions of civil administration but real power lies with the security force officials.The military is concerned mostly with security matters. Civil governance is not their primary concern
There is an urgent need therefore to restore civilian control and expedite rehabilitation and development. This is necessary not merely from a humanitarian perspective but also from a politico – military viewpoint. How this is to be done is the question. Delay or failure in this respect would have dire consequences.As Ambassador Blake said the government faces significant risks if it fails to seize its opportunity in the East.
This government heavily influenced by the ideology of “Sinhala Buddhist supremacy” has both a covert and overt Eastern agenda.
Covertly it seeks to “Sinhalaise” the East at the expense of Tamils and Muslims.Sinister plans are being set in motion but more of that on another occasion.
Overtly the GOSL talks of holding elections on the one hand and on the other , setting up a special agency and/or ministry to implement rehabilitation and development for the East.
The Rajapakse regime has been ignoring the Tamil National Allliance MP’s in their plans for the East. They are not invited for most official meetings. Security is not provided for the seven elected and one appointed Eastern TNA Parliamentarians to visit their province. The Eastern “eight” lodge routine protests at this treatment but to no avail. So it seems unlikely that the Tamil MP’s of the East will be called upon to play a role in restoring normalcy.
Currently what the Govt has in mind is the staging of elections for the Eastern Provincial Council and other local authorities. The regime has an ulterior motive in holding provincial council elections. One is that by holding PC elections in the East the de- merger can be made permanent.
The other reason is that it wants to ensure that the para – military groups collaborating with the state are ensconced in power. The current favourite is “Col” Karuna’s Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Puligal (TMVP) because it is the only Tamil entity supporting the de – merger.
Imposing a ” political leadership” from above like the TMVP or Devananda’s outfit cannot be of great help. These elements are not seen as independent but as being “in dependence ” of the Govt. Just as the TNA is a tiger lackey these groups are GOSL puppets. Their imposition through electoral malpracice cannot provide the answer. They will be resented by people of all communities. Also they will simply expand their shady activities and continue with things like extortions, abductions etc.
Trying to replace the LTTE with these elements is like substituting hyenas for the tiger. Besides there will be a lot of violence. The various factions of the TMVP will engage in intra – group violence. There will also be inter – group violence. It must be noted that several TNA members of local authorities and former candidates have been killed. Elections at provincial or local level can aggravate such assassinations. Also the LTTE pistol groups will have a field day killing candidates.
Under these circumstances whatever election held will have no credibility. The election will be fraudulent. The “winning” candidates will be members of para – military groups. Democratic norms will be violated. The winners will be given extra – security and would very likely live as security force appendages. The new Councils will be a joke. In the eyes of the people these new “representatives” will be perceived as Govt stooges and security force minions. They will not inspire confidence nationally and internationally.
The other option pursued by this regime is to set up a special authority or ministry for Eastern development. There is speculation that the nation building ministry would be in charge with a special Eastern development authority set up. There could be a special project ministry for Eastern development too. Basil Rajapakse is tipped to head the ministry or ministries and already he is in charge of some envisaged Eastern resurgence projects.
President Rajapakse announced in Los Angeles that 20 billion rupees will be allocated for the East. It would be a model for post – conflict reconstruction. The crunch however is lack of funds. The regime expects generous foreign assistance for re-generating the East. But there is little chance of Colombo getting all the money it wants for this
For one thing any project under Basil Rajapakse will be viewed with suspicion. If twenty billion is allocated cynics will say 10 % of that is two billion.
Even without Basil, foreign entities will be reluctant to give money to a project or ministry administered by the central government. Apart from doubts on the hidden “Sinhalaisation” agenda the international community would prefer these tasks to be planned and implemented at the provincial level because that would facilitate greater participaation by people from the region. The Tamils and Muslims too would prefer the Provincial level.
It becomes necessary then to transform military control to civilian control as speedily as possible for expediting foreign assistance and restoration of civilian normalcy. Given the prevailing constraints and difficulties of resurrecting an electoral body the only way out seems an enlightened approach of “benevolent” Presidential rule. While the Province is under direct Presidential rule the administration could be planned, coordinated and implemented by the Governor acting on the advice of an interim advisory council.
The President can invoke Constitutional provisions – 154 A and 154 T – to set up a Provincial Council for the East and then establish a special advisory council through Gazette proclamation for a specified period.Powers vested in the Provincial Council chief minister will be transferred to the Governor who in turn will delegate it to the advisory council. It would not be a case of the Governor “consulting” the advisory council but clearly acting “on the advice” of the advisory council.
In India when a state government is dissolved and Presidential rule is imposed the powers of the chief minister will be in the hands of the Governor who is the President’s representative. An Advisory council is appointed to “advise” the Governor. This advisory council becomes the de – facto administration till fresh elections are called. The advisory council comprises experienced and capable persons with administrative ability and expertise.
Likewise the envisaged special advisory council for the East could have persons possessing commitment and competence with knowledge and experience of the region and/or the erstwhile North – East Provincial administration. The important thing is not to have security forces or para- military representatives on this council. The composition should conform to the ethnic ratio of the province. Since Tamils are the single largest ethnicity in the province and also because the Governor is a Sinhalese the advisory council head could be a Tamil.
The advsory council’s term could be for two years.Its immediate priority would be provide adequate relief to people victimised by the war and to re- settle and rehabilitate displaced persons speedily. Urgent steps should be taken to revive agriculture, fisheries, small industry and animal husbandry. Repairing and re – building of houses, schools, hospitals, roads and sanitary facilities , restoring electricity and improving transport etc should be the immediate priority. Recruiting Policemen and public service officials is also a must.
Most of these functions come under the Provincial list in terms of the 13th amendment. There may be a need however to utilise powers devolved under the concurrent list or those given to the centre to expedite or enhance activity for humanitarian reasons.In that case statutes have to be drafted for each function specifically and passed by Parliament. In effect Parliament will be giving powers to the President who in turn will delegate it to the Governor and advisory council.
While the special advisory council functions like a virtual interim administration the political process seeking Constitutional reform should not be abandoned. If the APRC and APC finalise matters the quantum of devolution (sans concurrent list) agreed upon could be given the Provincial Council without two -thirds majority or a referendum. This requires under 154 G a bill to be passed by Parliament and endorsed by all the Provincial Councils.If this can be done then the PC’s will have greater devolution.
Setting up an advisory council will facilitate transfer of control to the civil from military. Though the elected council will not be there the Provincial administration will be in “force” through the Advisory Council. This province – oriented administration will inspire greater trust and confidence among the people of the Province than a Central government structure or fraudulently elected body. The International Community will have no qualms about providing finances to uplift the Eastern province and the people through this structure.
The special advisory council will not be an end unto itself but only means to an end. The ultimate objective should be the setting up of a democratically elected body to be the political executive for the province. Law and order should be the responsibility of the Police. The armed forces should only be in charge of security. The para – militaries should be absorbed into the regular army and subjected to military discipline.
For all this to happen President Rajapakse must display enlightened statesmanship. The need of the hour is to facilitate transition of military control to civilian administration. The best option seems to be that of Presidential rule of the Province through the Governor and a special advisory council. Arguably that seems the best way to convert a military success into a political victory.It is only then that the East will truly have a new sunrise.
DBS Jeyaraj can be reached at djeyaraj@federalidea.com



