International response to Sri Lanka war after the end of CFA
by Col R Hariharan (retd.)
The European Union’s decision to renew the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) plus scheme provided for Sri Lanka’s exports for another three years from January 2009, despite its adverse reaction to the ending of the ceasefire agreement (CFA) by Sri Lanka government. (The GSP plus concession enables Sri Lanka to export its goods and products to the EU at reduced or exempted tax and duty levies.) This decision comes in the face of strong stand taken by Germany on this issue. In an interview published on February 9 Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, German Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development, had said that if Sri Lanka continued with the military option without seeking credible political solution to the conflict in Sri Lanka she would demand the EU to withdraw the GSP offered to Sri Lanka.
This clearly illustrated the ambivalence between thought and action that underlines the response of international community in responding to contentious issues. This applies not only to the Sri Lanka issue, but many other similar global issues.
There has been widespread international concern at the growing human rights violations and disregard for humanitarian concerns in Sri Lanka ever since the security forces went on the offensive against in December 2005. Sri Lanka’s reluctance to allow international involvement in either monitoring or improving the Human Rights situation has not endeared it to other nations even while the CFA was in force. This concern has been compounded by major escalation in the Eelam war-4 resulting in heavy loss of life since then. Moreover, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) response to the security forces offensive with series of blasts and killings targeting civilians in the south has further compounded international concerns over the Sri Lanka war.
Undoubtedly these developments have disappointed friendly nations who had put their time and resources in giving form and content to the now defunct peace process 2002. With the security forces on the threshold of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) heartland in the north, the battle would only intensify further, choking the hopes of reviving international mediation process for bringing peace, perhaps irrevocably.
Apart from the four co-chairs of Tokyo Donors Conference ? the EU, Japan, Norway and the U.S., India, Canada and the UK have consistently shown great interest in helping Sri Lanka resolve the Tamil issue peacefully. Though their reaction to the Sri Lankan walkout from the CFA varied, their response had two common elements: regret at the government decision to withdraw from the CFA and a reminder that Sri Lanka could resolve the issue not merely by military means but with a political package on devolution. Despite such clarity on basic issues, international community’s future course of action in respect of Sri Lanka’s active pursuit of war will be conditioned by their national self interest.
India as a major regional power has its own equation with other members of the Tokyo Donors Conference and other western powers. India – Sri Lanka relation is unique due to closeness geographical, cultural and trade interests. It has its own coordinates, conditioned by many geo-strategic issues. Among these India’s interest in ensuring smooth resolution of the problem of Sri Lanka Tamils so that it does not affect the peace and tranquillity in both countries is an important one. So study of India’s response to Sri Lanka war comes under a category different from other countries.
The LTTE’s dependence upon its global support network of Sri Lanka Tamil expatriates to progress the war in Sri Lanka has inevitably drawn it within the ambit of the U.S-led global war on terror. At the same time, it also served as incentive for the international community led by power centres from three continents ? the U.S., the EU, Japan (and Norway representing the peace lobbies) ? take a lead in gilding a Sri Lanka peace package with developmental finance as incentive. As a result the Sri Lanka government and the LTTE agreed upon the CFA and the Norwegian mediated peace process in 2002. India dogged by the ghosts of its bitter experience at peace making in Sri Lanka in the past tacitly agreed to the mediation “intrusion” by external players, in what it had considered as its own domain of power. However, the large scale violation of the ceasefire by the LTTE till December 2005 and by the Sri Lanka government as well thereafter has probably led to the disillusionment of the four co-chairs with both the Sri Lanka government and the LTTE.
The demise of the peace process has also resulted in the dismantling of the international structural assets painfully built to moderate and monitor the peace process. Along with that, much of the Lanka-friendly attitudes of nations actively involved in the peace process are also eroded.
If international understanding of the Sri Lanka government’s stand on ending the ceasefire is interpolated on a scale of 1 to 9, India and Japan with a score of 6 show a close understanding. At the same time, they have made clear that military solution alone was unworkable. Both have tended to play down Sri Lanka’s performance on human rights issues and do not air their views freely in public. They are unlikely to go along with international of collective action, if any, to coerce Sri Lanka government to improve human rights. However, they are likely to support any persuasive measures for producing the same results. The same applies to resumption of peace negotiations also.
On the other hand, the U.S. (with a score of 5) has shown a keen understanding of the Sri Lankan stand than the rest. The U.S. has stressed the need for the government to come out with a devolution package for Tamils without further delay. The U.S. has also put some riders on future aid and military assistance till Sri Lanka mends its dismal human rights record. At the same time these actions were balanced with other acts or statements to soften the impact. For instance the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) issued a statement terming the LTTE as the most dreaded role model of Al Qaeda almost at the same time as the U.S. issued a statement critical of the Sri Lanka government for abandoning the CFA. We can expect the U.S. to continue this carefully tailored approach in Sri Lanka. While the U.S. has a fairly good understanding of the Tamil quest for equal rights, it neither condones nor supports the LTTE, which has been representing the Tamil interests in the peace process. So it will continue to cooperate with the government in Sri Lanka while supporting the resumption of peace parleys. At best, the U.S. would pitch more forcefully to sponsor the presence of a UN Human Rights watchdog at Colombo.
The UK, with the same score of 5 as the U.S., appears to be slightly better nuanced in its approach than other EU members. However, the large and influential Tamil expatriate lobby in the UK is already bringing considerable political pressures on the ruling party to make the government policy more sensitive and considerate to the Tamil struggle for equity. When the elections get closer this could generate more positive action than issuing palliative statements on Sri Lanka Tamils. This could result in bringing more pressure upon Sri Lanka government.
The EU with 4 points and Norway at 3 points have shown strong resentment of Sri Lanka’s disdain for international concerns on ending the CFA and on its deteriorating human rights record. They have been strident in the UN in their demand for structural and qualitative improvement on the Human Rights front in Sri Lanka. They are likely to keep up pressure on this question, diplomatically and in public, both within and outside the UN. However, internally the EU members have their own differing perceptions on the overall situation in Sri Lanka. These will condition their behaviour and prescription on any proposal for collective action.
Canada appears to figure somewhere between the EU and Norway. It is driven both by local political considerations where Tamils have a strong say, and the opposing stands taken by the ruling party and the opposition on the LTTE’s war. Unlike its predecessor, the present government in Canada is strongly opposed to terrorism of the LTTE kind and had been fully cooperating with the U.S. in its actions against the LTTE. Without loud statements such actions by Canada are likely to continue. At the same time, Canada has equally strong stand on human rights issues in conformity with that of the EU.
The attitudes of China and Pakistan to Sri Lanka have been largely conditioned by considerations of strategic security, trade and geo-politics. Their interest lies in creating their own special space in Sri Lanka’s policy horizon. China would like to establish a strategic foothold in Sri Lanka beyond security orientation relating to India. Probably Chinese interests are focused on the larger canvass of Indian Ocean security. China would continue to maintain and enlarge upon the existing goodwill between the two countries through improved commercial relations and armament sales. While India with its geographical and cultural closeness would always have an advantage in its relations with Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka would like to use the competitive nature of the India-China relations to gain maximum advantage for its own benefit.
In the case of Pakistan, the interest is more oriented to South Asia focusing on India’s increasing assertion in the region and Asia. Many Sri Lankans perceive Pakistan as a friend particularly on occasions when India had not been helpful in issues impinging upon the Tamil conflict. While this attitude may not be a great advantage in building better trade relations between Sri Lanka and Pakistan, it is handy for Sri Lanka in its current phase of war to source arms supply from Pakistan. Sri Lanka’s increasingly close relationship with India makes it a unique listening post for Pakistan’s India operations. And Pakistan will continue to take full advantage of its relations with Sri Lanka to exploit this unique status of Sri Lank.
Thus both China and Pakistan have identified themselves completely with the actions of the Sri Lanka government. By doing this without any “suspicious agenda” from Sri Lanka’s point of view, Sri Lanka’s relationship with both these countries is likely to flourish. Of course, political and geo-strategic constraints on Sri Lanka over such a growth will always be there.
Attitude towards the LTTE
The LTTE has been finding it hard to reconcile itself to the fall in international esteem ever since it walked out of the peace process. Its continued refusal to read the changing international mood and come to terms with reality was evident from its statement on the CFA even as early as February 22, 2007. It said “It (the CFA) recognised Tamil Eelam’s de facto existence, with its unique characteristics; a distinct population; a government comprising a defence force, a police force, a judiciary, a civil administration and other institutions for effective governance of a people, and capability of entering into agreements with other governments, with a line of control reflecting the ground reality of the existence of the Tamil homeland demarcated with recognised borders. The CFA recognised the balance of power between the GOSL (Government of Sri Lanka) and the LTTE, and was premised on this balance of power?” However, its intention to resume the war of secession made in the same statement has not helped nations like Norway and the EU which had tried to revive the peace process.
This attitudinal rigidity coupled with its renewed violent actions against civilian targets well outside its beat after the end of the CFA is probably an important consideration in shaping international lack of interest in the LTTE’s style of fighting for Tamil rights. The LTTE’s political head B Nadesan’s grandiose claim “we are a conventional force. We will launch attacks on military targets but we will not target civilians,” even as its bomb squads started hitting civilian targets served only to increase the gap in LTTE’s international credibility. So when Nadesan addressed a letter to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon indicating the readiness of the LTTE to adhere by the CFA scrupulously it made no impact.
The LTTE argument that the only “path open to regain the rights of the Tamil people” was through recognition of the sovereignty of the Tamil nation particularly after being a party to the demise of the CFA and peace process will find few takers internationally. With the continued identification of the LTTE as a part of the global terror regimes, the militant group is likely to find it has less and less freedom to operate outside Sri Lanka in the coming months.
In a nut shell
In concrete terms, the international community is not likely to take any major collective action against Sri Lanka unless they are involved in yet another peace process for which the chances are slim. At the same time, reasons of real politick are likely to discourage collective responsibility of the kind they had shown in 2002-03 that culminated in the peace process, unless both Sri Lanka and the LTTE agree to fully cooperate to ensure success of such an initiative.
Tamil expatriates, who appear to put too much faith in international action in Sri Lanka to force the government to give up the military option and revive the peace process, would do well to remember this. And probably they will have to persuade India to prevail upon Sri Lanka to effect any change because it stands outside the internationally networked stand on this issue. India is in no mood or under compulsion to do this at present for its own reasons. What India can do to make it a win-win situation for all in Sri Lanka requires a more detailed examination because it depends upon what the LTTE, the Tamil expatriates, the people, politicians and the Sri Lanka government should do to help themselves.
So the light at the end of the tunnel is still not visible because the tunnel has not ended. And that is a tragedy for the people of Sri Lanka and all other stakeholders including the international community. [saag]
(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com)
sam said,
March 14, 2008 @ 6:16 pm
Has it ever occurred to the author, that may be, Just may be, the international community has come to the conclusion that the lesser of the two evils is GOSL. I would not be surprised if that is the case
Rob Kandasamy said,
March 14, 2008 @ 7:25 pm
Interesting article, but nothing we dont already know. The author was involved in the Indian invasion and fight agains the LTTE that forced to withdraw from Sri Lanka and the hurt still remains and for the past decade has been a soldier trying to win the war that was his war – the vietnam syndrome for many in the USA.
In terms of real politick – if Russia had to sit and come to terms with Kosovo, then India, which is much less than China in the global scheme of things, better be careful it does not find itself in an embarrasing situation that could see it not receive a security council position if it takes on the West. Bottom line, India may have to decide, security council or sri lanka !!! China already has set the moves in its back yard …but it has the security council seat….but when it came to the choice between Darfur and the Olympics…China readily allowed the International Community into Sudan !!! India’s politics is truly indian…they still a young naive innocent lot….!! Real politic for retired advisors lol…there is a long way to go for INdia…all over the world…compared to Nigerians, Chinese and those growing fast…Indians are like children…this articles is like daddy telling the story of how it should be !!!
Rob Kandasamy said,
March 14, 2008 @ 7:44 pm
Oops
The articles is about the GSP Preferences !!! Is Hariharan sure the EU has renewed the GSP Preferences for 2008 ???
It is March 2008 now and i thought there was still time to go…but i have noticed the Sinhala and pro facist websites in Sri Lanka have said it is renewed….
I understand this decision is still to be made ! So why is Harry Harry already making analysis..fighting his war !!! Vietname syndrome !
Rob Kandasamy said,
March 14, 2008 @ 7:49 pm
And i am proved right. There is a long way for renewal for GSP preferences..so Harry Harry needs to consider retirement !!! reads Sri Lankan websites and then becomes an intelligence agent par excellance….refuses to really retire !!! Read Below article dated 10 MArch 2008
From a Sri Lankan website: http://www.lakmag.com/03-10-2008_2.html
GSP-Plus and Sri Lanka’s human rights
March 10: Sri Lanka Minister of Export Development and International Trade Prof. G.L. Peiris has recently addressed diplomats of the European Union based in New Delhi and accredited concurrently to Colombo on the GSP (Generalised System of Preferences) Plus issue. At the meeting held at Sri Lanka High Commission in New Delhi, the Minister has apprised them of political and economic developments in Sri Lanka.
The countries represented were Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Slovak Republic, Spain and Sweden.
The GSP Plus status given to Sri Lanka by the EU giving tax concessions for a number of exports from Sri Lanka is up for renewal and is subjected to the implementation of some 27 international covenants on good governance, environment protection and human rights. They have to be ratified by the beneficiary countries by 31 December 2008.
Ratna said,
March 14, 2008 @ 10:18 pm
I do not agree with the scoring for US or UK for their understanding of Srilankan issue.
If you look at their recent statements regarding Srilankan situation, they have shown that they ‘know’ everything going on in the Island.
But, if you score for their ‘interest’ in Srilankan future, you maybe right.
India has more ‘interest’ in the Island than others. Unfortunately India does not know their own strength and not handling this correctly.
Just imagine, if Srilankan Navy posing as Tigers attack Indian Coast Guards or Tigers posing as Srilankan Navy attack Indian Navy, then things will change dramatically.
I am sure International Agencies have this on their agenda.
KTR said,
March 14, 2008 @ 11:23 pm
Rob, it was an Eye opening comments. I was under the impression as the author too until I read the link.
Those few who wrote to SAAG were retired RAW agents (one Mr.Raman and one this Col. and another S.Moorthy) are all fighting the war with LTTE with some wishful thinking that LTTE is in its last breath. How much they know about LTTE and Tamil Nationalism is very clear from their current writing and no wonder why they mislead the RAW when they were in the active service few years ago.
Even the Ego maniac J.N. Dixit has said this in his interview to promote the “Assignment Colombo”
Frederica Jansz: You have referred to Prabhakaran as one whose commitment to the creation of Eelam is unalterable, also that the rebel leader is an accomplished political strategist and military tactician. Isn’t that contrary to the perception you had of him when you were the envoy here?
Dixit: This is the benefit of hindsight. The way Prabhakaran has managed things has led me to this conclusion. After ten years I do have a different perception of the man. However the only point which I maintained at the time and do so even now is his commitment to Eelam which is unalterable. Prabhakaran reluctantly agreed to the Indo-Lanka Accord at the time because he did realize the need to be realistic and not fall out with India. But yes, my judgment of the man has changed within the past ten years, after reading many reports and newspaper items on Prabhakaran and the LTTE.
A career diplomat like JN Dixit learn the lessons in his career and corrected the Judgment in his last days, these few who write to the SAAG have never seems to learn or REFUSE TO LEARN and REFUSE to RETIRE in attacking LTTE.
LTTE and Tamils of Eelam will be friendly to India as we have cultural connections with India but if annoyed, it is not Eelam is looking for Kosovo like trend but Tamil Nadu will be the one will look for Kosovo trend.
Mohan said,
March 15, 2008 @ 12:06 am
Yes, Col. Hari correct in asserting that international community lacks in-depth understanding of the conflict.
But lets face it. It is always going to be like that. Even large significant powers are misunderstood by rest of the world, from time to time. SL is never going to big enough to warrant greater interest resulting in greater understandning.
My point is: at present SL govt(and it some extent its friends in Indian establishment) are able to take advantage of IC’s weakness.
But world political dynamics can change very quickly and the same weakness can benefit the Tamils too in the future,
Rubbish said,
March 15, 2008 @ 6:52 am
“There’s no one on the side of Tamils” is not lost on LTTE or Ceylon Tamils.
At best, India, EU, Japan and USA are all on the side of the Sinhalese. Why?
Doesn’t this world see oppression, racial discrimination, abject respect for human rights? where human slaying takes place at an average of 30 per week in the South? Is this world gone blind to whats happening in SL?
No wonder Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan and the Arab world know this stupidity and folly of the west and east and making human suicide bombs to teach US allies a lesson?
Indian disintegration is the next major event of this century! Mark my words! Southern states are richer and English Speaking than their Northern counterparts. North cannot suppress South for too long and Kerala/Karnataka/Tamil Nadu/AndhraPradesh will form thier own union sooner or later!!!!
This is because of the North Indian Stupidity of policies of supporting Bangladesh and Sri Lanka!!!
2ndClassTamil said,
March 15, 2008 @ 1:41 pm
As others have pointed out he may be wrong on the GSP+
Some maturity shown in not using the terrorist title on LTTE or dragging the Rajiv issue has to be appreciated, but an attack on the claim of ‘conventional force’ is not convincing, coming from a colonel who knows the highlights of LTTE.
‘India dogged by the ghosts of its bitter experience at peace making in Sri Lanka in the past tacitly agreed to the mediation ‘intrusion’ by external players, in what it had considered as its own domain of power’. What about the Pakistani and Chinese ghosts? Come on!!!
There is a statement linking the sovereignty of the Tamil with CFA! Lol
In what way has India helped the Tamils?
Was the training of armed groups by India to help the Tamils live in peace and tranquillity (and not for serving Indian interests)?
Is the present policy of supporting to the hilt GoSL war campaign helping Tamils?
Is being the only country supporting the APRC’s 13th amendment (while getting the IC to shut up) a help to the Tamils?
Is giving military armaments and intelligence to GoSL helping the Tamils (to be liquidated)?
Have they spoken out on the atrocities and killing of young Tamil males taking place in SL?
Is curbing the freedom of expression in India in support of Tamil sovereignty a help?
How about sending those medicines collected in India for the Ealam Tamils. They are desperate to use them even if the expiry dates have passed.
The Chanakyam of retired colonels should be taken with a pinch of salt!
dias said,
March 15, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
Expect the US + EU + UN (the Western Block) to exert enormous pressure on India to live up to its standing as the Regional Power and make the tough decisions necessary to bring the Sri Lanka matter to a conclusion.
Everything that have been transpired on the island since the emergence of the Rajapaksa administration have provided this major power Block with a much crisper understanding of the deep rooted causes and the dynamics of the seemingly intractable conflict. With the end-goal clear in their minds this Block will coordinate and implement a concerted long-term plan to realize the desired strategic goal for the island – a united sovereign Sri Lanka with meaningful devolution of powers.
Implementation will take many years, cost a ton and will be systemic and synchronous. This power Block will expect the Indians to be the executioners of the Plan and if India backs-off from this Regional obligation, a US-led Western force will take over. It is highly unlikely that India will complain that the heat to be too much in the kitchen and in most likelihood, despite their dislike for Prahabakaran, grudgingly yield to the Western pressure. To do anything less will simply be too risky – both, in consideration of tangible as well as intangible repercussions – an example of the latter, her enormous desire as an emerging world power for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Some may argue that this will not be possible because of the fast cementing bonds between the “Counter” Block – China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan – and the Rajapaksa administration. True, while this would make the efforts of the Western block more cumbersome, the tie-breaker will be the UN – which will be the primary tool the Western Block will leverage to implement the long term Plan. There would be little the Counter Block could do – especially in view of their own enormous dependence on the US and the EU. For each, it would be a matter of risk-reward and how much each would want to stick their necks out for Sri Lanka.
Accordingly, expect the Western block to tighten the screws on the Government of Sri Lanka while loosening somewhat the screws on the Tigers. But the screw adjustments on both will only be to the extent of forcing the two protagonists back to the negotiating table (and this time around expect others to be also there) – in the hope of evolving a negotiated solution. The eventual formula will never be a Kosovo-like bifurcation nor a center-controlled Unitary form of governance. It will be in the lines of a federal solution, though may not be called by this Sinhalese-chary f-word. The end-goal will seek meaningful devolution of power to all regions within a united Sri Lanka – one that will finally bring peace to the torn-apart island.
Also: Hariharan is correct and incorrect in his GSP+ assessment. Though the EU Parliament passed it, its ratification comes much later in the year. Yes, the EU encouraged by the US will most probably use this as one of their tools to tighten the screws on the Sri Lankan government. GL Peiris’ efforts to prevent the Europeans will most probably have the same effect as his last years effort to stop the Americans from cancelling US Millennium Account aid to the island!
Rob Kandasamy said,
March 15, 2008 @ 6:05 pm
I tend to agree with much of the analysis of dias.
I do however tend to disagree with the other commentators who critise the West. In my view the West is starting a slow and wide U-turn in its approach to the crisis in Sri Lanka. Germany has made its views known as is the case with the UK. The USA also has also adopted a different tone in handling the Sri Lankan crisis.
Notice that the LTTE’s attacks on civilian targets in the South is only in direct response to attacks on civilian targets in the North and the US then comes out with its standard refrain for a negotiated settlement but otherwise its condemnation is limited. Otherwise the LTTE avoids “terrorist attacks”. This is to change the tide of opinion and its actually working. The LTTE’s Nadesan also said earlier this year that in 2008 the LTTE would focus on changing diplomatic perceptions of them Now unless the LTTE are able to read the future from sri lankan tea leaves, this may be planned and arising from relationships and discussions during the CFA as the LTTE was advised on what is expected of them by the West.
The problem is that India may have not read the script properly, and while not wanting to get involved (memories of the IPKF), and cannot selll weapons (the tamil nadu factor), is also blinded by commercial interests and the fear of increasing China/Pakistan moves into Sri Lanka.
The West does not need to pressure India to act on Sri Lanka, knowing that modern India is adopting an attitude of “splendid isolation” wrapped up in its economic growth. What the West knows is that Sri Lanka is falling into an economic quagmire, increasing international borrowings in an environment where all costs are going up. This will put pressure on the Sri Lankan people’s willingness for war and their nationalistic tone will dissipate possibly leading to a change of government with an economic mess on its hands……and this will require economic support ultimately from the West (SL not being that important to China in the scheme of things) and what does the West do with highly indebted countries i.e. in Africa – it imposes conditionalities for support such as ceasefire go to talks. What then is the bargaining position of the Sri Lankan state when for the second time it is forced into a cease fire and negotiations ? admission of a non-state actors control of territory and its sovereignity in that territory. Any unwillingness to go for this ceasefire isa precursor to a Kosovo situation with or without India’s support. Whereas Serbia had to be restrained from invading Kosovo, no one worries that India will step into Sri Lanka !!! One bitten…twice shy.
Rob Kandasamy said,
March 15, 2008 @ 6:08 pm
I forgot to mention, the US elections present an interesting situation – If Obama wins, it is likely he will not support the Sri Lankan governements move towards a military solutions. and If Hilary Clinton wins, she has made her views known on the LTTE and that they may have to be considered differently rather than being considered terrorists. After all, it was a her husband, Bill Clinton who initiated the partition of Kosovo with the bombing of Serbia in 1995.
selva said,
March 16, 2008 @ 12:54 am
Attn: KTR
You are right Mr. KTR if Mahinda wins the war that will be the end of Tamils in Sri Lanka and Tamilnadu will become another Cosavo soon. But the 2500 years dreams of Sinhalese will be full filled . But I don’t want the Tigers to win anything for Tamils at the expense of killing of other militant groups’ boys. Tigers should get defeated. Everything they did in the past only helped the Sinhalese. Now the EU & US has accepted India as the regional power and has asked them to show their muscles power in the Sri Lankan matters. At least at the fall of Kilinochi Indian army has to be present here. But Still India want to watch how the Tamils disappear from this island then they will see another Cosavo in India. If Wanni falls where the money of the Tiger multinational will go than to Tamilnadu. Not only the money also the readily avilable technology will reach. Tamils from all over the world specialy from South Africa and Malaysia will pour in the money. Only at that time the decision making Hindi people will realize teh mistake. Tamilnadu ecconomy is not anymore depending on Kavery. They are industrialized and they will prosper well than now and also it will be a nuclear powered country. Then there will be Raja Raja cholans and their will be wars.
selva said,
March 16, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
Dear Hari, Tibetian problem and the Northeast problem are of the same catogary. Only Dalai Lama has used the proper term ‘ Clutural Genoside’ for this. So many years he didn’t realize the consequences of Chinese colonization but now the migrated people are going to become more than 50% and that is what made them to alert. Our great leaders of Federal Party warned us about this 50 years ago . Neru is the one supposed to be called Mahathma because he is the one stopped this type of Genocide through constitution in India. India without thinking of the consequences will have to support not only to the Tamils of Sri Lanka also to Tibetians. Only solution to Sri Lanka is like that of North Cyprus because it is internationaly accepted solution. If they help the Tibetians they will not have China in their nothern border. If they make their agenda thinking of their safety whether in Sri Lanka or China, the god will think in the other way only.
Rob Kandasamy said,
March 16, 2008 @ 3:46 pm
Atten: Selva
Do you think India is going to step into India to protect the tamils ? or defend the Sinhalese ? Not a chance – why ..they remember the IPKF days (the tamils), and they remember the deviousness of the Sinhalese (Premadasa and what the JVP is doing today). If any tamil beleives India will step into SL, they are dreaming….Only one thing will bring India in, the near extermination/genocide of tamils but only cause Tamil Nadu will go into slow burn and want to unite with North East Sri Lanka.
The advice for the tamils – offer the oil reserve contracts in the Gulf of Mannar to US or European companies !!! Game, set, match !
2ndClassTamil said,
March 16, 2008 @ 6:15 pm
I have a problem with the argument of dias (#10). Is he not saying in a way that the Western Block is going to ‘dictate’ a solution? I for one will be with my Singhalese brothers in opposing such a development – however sweet the proposals may sound to the Tamil ears – simply because a solution not agreeable to the Singhalese nation, is not agreeable to Tamils too, as it will never be a permanent solution. This, I believe, is a matter the two nations have to come to terms with, and resolve amongst themselves. Foreigners – US, EU or India – cannot impose a solution on SL.
Having said that, enormous political pressure can be brought to bear by these blocks on GoSL, for it to see sense. If not for the unceasing false govt propaganda, over 80% people would not have been misled to support the disastrous policy of all out war that is destroying the fabric of society in SL. If such pressure can indirectly make our ‘literate electorate’ re-evaluate its stance, then that too is welcome.
Ultimately, unless we see 80% support for genuine power sharing, enshrined in law, …. I better not complete this sentence!
Indian Tamil said,
March 16, 2008 @ 10:00 pm
#13
Everyone is entitled to dream…Majority of the SL tamils dream of balcanisation of India and TN to lead the event.
Despite so many well wishers like pak and SL tamils India is strengthened in its resolve to remain one,despite vast cultural diversity.Finally if everything fails ,we have another vellore tamil Gen.Thamburaj,southern Army commander to thwart the designs of LTTE and other tamil diaspora wherever they are from…
Stop dreaming and donot start killing TN tamils after exterminating the poor SL tamils..
dias said,
March 17, 2008 @ 6:19 pm
The West Block, I do not believe is any way interested in “dictating” the character of a solution rather “force” a peaceful outcome irrespective of its character – Unitary, Federal or Whatever else. West will care less about structure, as long as the end result is sustainable peace acceptable to the bickering parties. However, having acquired detailed and enhanced knowledge about the conflict, players and its dynamics, it is the view of the West that whatever the solution it will have to translate to meaningful devolution of power to the regions – and in the final analysis, acceptable primarily to both, Sinhalese and Tamils but also to the Muslims. The West’s interests are more than mere cosmetic, geo-political, or rhetorical (all that nice stuff about “spreading of democracy”) – it’s also about bread and butter realities.
With fast expanding 24 x 7 call center and BPO operations in South India, millions of American and European consumers have become increasingly dependent on these Western-Indian business partnerships and any disruption to these operations will have significant direct impact on Western economies. Though, so far the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka has mostly been confined to the island without any measurable spillover to the Indian mainland, a possible spillover and subsequent disruption to 24 x 7 operations that may impact Western businesses has become an economic concern for American and Western legislators. [A recent 2-day breakdown of call-center operations between India and the US due to technical failures resulting from bad weather in India highlighted the impact. This event caused major disruptions to US consumers with tons of irate customer complaining to businesses resulting in loss of millions of dollars.] Western legislators clearly recognize the potential negative fallout to their economies from the conflict if it is allowed to fester – an added compelling motivation for their engagement in the island.
When a US Presidential candidate at a Silicone Valley company town-hall meeting brings-up Sri Lanka to characterize the “challenge we face in the 21st century” the issue must be deposited at the prefrontal cortex of his brain (the part of the brain responsible for planning complex cognitive behaviors) – and no longer the issue in the back burner archives at the State Department. You bet, the American and European legislators are very concerned and monitoring the situation on the island ever so closely. Expect the West Block to resolutely guide a solution knowing well that they will have to invest significantly as well as grudgingly end-up as guarantors to an eventual solution – an obligation they would love to pass to the Indians. Expect the next US President to take a direct interest in the island’ s conflict bringing it to permanent conclusion. It will be good for all.
selva said,
March 17, 2008 @ 9:04 pm
Attn: Rob Kandasamy
Indian Army came here in 1987 was really a miracle and it was a dream comes true for each and every Tamil except one person. Because of just one person the fate of the whole community has changed. The Tamils who savived for 2500 years from many genocides are nearing extinction now. If republicans comes again to power probably there will be a war between india and china and at that time not only Tibet two three other provinces also will get separeted from China and northeast will become a part of Tamilnadu. Sometimes the rest of Sri Lanka too become a province of India. Rajiv Gandi sending the troop was not a miracle actually he was waiting for the oppotunity. In the 70s in his first election campain in North India he spoke about the suppresion of Tamils in Sri Lanka. Most probably he would have studied with some Ceylon Tamils in England and come to know everythig detaily. That is why as soon as Amirthalingham requested him he sent the troops. Even Indra Gandi whould have been prime minister at that time she whouldn’t have done that . The reason is JR sent Thondaman to bully her saying if India intervened militarily the upcountry people might face a genoside. This paruppu didn’t work with Rajiv. But still we were unfortune. Also the greate leader showed his anger with innocent Amirthalingham.
harshana somapriya said,
March 18, 2008 @ 4:30 am
The harsh truth India & Sri Lanka have learnt through IPKF & CFA, is that no peace is possible with the LTTE or the Tamil Diaspora. Even the co-chairs (EU,Norway,US & Japan) have realised this. But their actions & statements (except for Japan) are influenced by the Tamil Diaspora, who are worried that the military defeat of LTTE will nullify all their investments in SL war. This fear of the Tamil Diaspora has pushed them to make their governments & NGO’s to voice the same concern to the GOSL.
Although the Rajapakse regime is driven by the ’stupidity’ of the big brothers, so far they have been successful and in some cases have obtained irrevocable victories against the Ealamists.
If the Rajapakses fail to handle the concerns of the west with diligence, what we can expect is a regime change (side-effect of economic troubles).
What the new regime can do is to start peace talks. Here, new conditions will be laid & the LTTE will NOT be considered as the only representatives of the Tamils. If the LTTE fails to agree(which they surely will), the west will also learn the harsh lesson that SL & India have had already learnt (i.e No peace possible with LTTE, since they will never accept anything below Ealam, even if the solution is a Cyprus type one)
Reggie said,
March 18, 2008 @ 5:37 am
Wishful thinking by the armchair generals above, a tiger doesn’t change it’s stripes it will be cornered and it will be skinned in the months ahead. The response will be a reversal to the out and out terror tactics it understands so well and the world knows it by. Judging by the begging & pleading coming out of the new chief terror PR Man Nadesans mouth the screws are indeed tightening. Our only hope is that the civilian casualty will be minimized.
selva said,
March 18, 2008 @ 7:31 pm
Attn: Harshana Somapiriya
Hi, I have already ansered to your discussions for my comments in the Mar.5, Wakelt Paul’s article. Please read it. What I meant Cyprus Solution is a Like Turkey occupying India has to occupy and time to time taking refrendum. If beth side accept to join they can get merged. See after 40 years they took the referndum in the Greek area ( Majority) and they voted not to join. In the Minority area they wanted to join because like north east of Sri Lanka there are no resorces in the Turkish area and because of that they have become poor . The same think can happen here too the Sinhalese will never want to join us back again but Tamils too will feel relaxed.
Rob Kandasamy said,
April 3, 2008 @ 5:25 pm
The good news is there is an end in sight to the war in Sri Lanka !
)
The question is do we all know the end !!
(a) the West was never involved;
(b) Human rights were never such a major issue even when the JVP and suspects were floating on riversp;
(c) the global economy is making the masses poor;
(d) Kosovo is now a legitimate precedent for a unique circumstance;
(e) the SL Govt has curbed the bombing by the airforce of civilians in response to the LTTE attacks in the South…basically vindicating the targeting of civilians by the LTTE;
(f) the Eastern elections are no more free and fair than Zimbabwe. At least Zimbabwe’s leader is seen as a genuine liberator by blacks;
(h) UTHR has notified the World and the NGO community about the massacre of 17;
(i) IIEGP has withdrawn..
TO THE WORLD>>>THERE IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION…the final solution !!!
P.S. Sudan is not so dependent on the world as Sri Lankans…..Sri Lanka and Sri Lankans…need the World…so their children can study, so they can emigrate, so that tourists can come….so they can take pride in developing towards Middle Income Nation…..Now the World will ask for its pound of flesh !!
I hope tamils and sinhalese can be friends in the new paradigm of their relationship !!