President Rajapakse Has Got India On His Side

March 5th, 2008

by Kusal Perera

[President Rajapaksa wirh Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh]

“What allows this government of President Rajapaksa to survive?” This question wasn’t asked one year ago, in the same tone and seriousness, it is asked today. Today, much has changed, locally and internationally in relevance to the Rajapaksa regime. Today, much has changed politically within the government and in the Opposition, within and without parliament. To whose advantage and to whose disadvantage are all these happening ? Very simply, to the advantage of the Rajapaksa regime and to the disadvantage of the people. To all people, in every part of the country. “How” and “why” would be questions that follow.

What ever different assessments there could be, at this very moment, President Rajapaksa is a stronger President than he was in 2007 year end. Today, President Rajapaksa has got the Indians on his side. Or rather, he was smart enough to compromise with the Indians, skinning away his history of being one among those who went against the Indo-SL Accord and thus against the 13th Amendment. He has conveniently forgotten that his SLFP joined the JVP in boycotting the Provincial Councils until Chandrika Kumaratunge came and turned them inside out on the ethnic issue. Today, President Rajapaksa had only to shed his history and grin at the 13th Amendment, for the Indians to say he should adopt the whole of it. President Rajapaksa thus stands for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment and also for total war against the LTTE. So the Indians are there behind him and they had him firmly committed on all that with the Indian NDTV and India Today coming to Colombo to record his full explanation.

This tactical move, though forced on the APRC with Indian advice, had given the Rajapaksa regime plenty of breathing space. It gives them the neighbourly big brother’s financial support and military aid. Economically, although life is in chaos with interest rates left very high and inflation around 26%, all essential consumer goods going up in prices, with only rhetoric about development programmes and the government taking absolutely no notice of heavy corruption that’s endemic by now, there still is some hope left for the government to survive economically with Indian economic inputs. A much needed prop to keep this government alive.

Above that, what President Rajapaksa achieved from this political deal is the Indian cover from international pressure. Let us not under estimate the importance of India in international politics. India got Bush who goes freaky over any nuclear talk to agree to their Nuclear project. That’s their importance now. India had a super delegation of Brits led by PM Gordon Brown and then French President Zarkowsky for its independence celebrations. British PM went on record telling the Indian media he would want India in the UN Security Council and that he would propose it himself. With India’s huge economic growth impact, it would be absurd to keep India out of international politics, was what Brown said. So, with that India on Rajapaksa’s side, one can be left assured there will not be much International pressure even on HR violations, beyond statements. It would therefore be interesting to note why Ban Ki Moon, sent his envoy Angela Kane to report on the workings of UN agencies here and not on charges regarding HR violations by the government, or both the government and the LTTE and why she left the country without meeting any of the Tamil and Muslim political leaders. Meanwhile, let’s also keep in mind that India kept its cool over human rights violations, even at the time when abductions, disappearances and extortions in Colombo were at a peak with Tamil business men of Indian origin falling victim. Therefore it would be worth the wait to see the international community in contact with Indian authorities, water down protests in the future.

From the Indian perspective, that always grudged and nudged when Sri Lanka moved out of its orbit and towards other power blocs, President Rajapaksa came as the best full option. This Rajapaksa regime with its “Dutugemunu dress and Andare antics”, is one of the most isolated regimes, internationally. Its deals with Pakistan and China though disliked by India, were “deals” and nothing political. At home, it’s a strong anti LTTE government, both politically and militarily. This combination of factors suited India to manipulate the Rajapaksa regime to fall in line with them. The cost being economic hand outs and a nod to continue with the war.

On the home front too, the Rajapaksa regime has gained politically. The JVP is in a dilemma they were never in since coming out from the jungles. They’ve misfired on their calculation of trapping Mahinda Rajapaksa as President to live within their draft of “Mahinda Chinthanaya”. Two years with this Rajapaksa regime, their “Chintanaya” has instead caught the JVP between “Stalin’s socialism and Dutugemunu’s nationalism”. Where could the JVP stand between the ever increasing CoL and the war cry ? With President Rajapaksa saying he would strengthen PC’s under the 13th Amendment, the JVP has been bowled out, being themselves present in the PCs. Thus once again their frantic call against Indian products in the local market. Unfortunately for them too, the JHU keeps backing the government, bifurcating the Sinhala ideology they shared together to push the war cry down the throats of Sinhala emotions. All that while undergoing a cultural blow up within the organisation that has divided the leadership into “going soft” and “hitting hard” against the Rajapaksa regime and living with a new lifestyle that’s more than comfortable. The JVP therefore would have to vote en bloc with the Rajapaksa regime in parliament on all crucial issues, though with a grumble.

All that becomes important political factors, when the main Opposition goes into political groaning in half sleep. That again is President Rajapaksa’s most precious gain. This regime in fact survives on the politics of a demoralised and confidence lacking Opposition UNP. The UNP does not know they should have a consistent political platform as the Opposition. Should they play into JVP politics, they are not necessary politically, for one JVP is enough without duplicates. Should they support the Rajapaksa regime that is corrupt, has no policy on anything but that to wage war, then it was in vain the whole UNP did not join the government with the “Karu group”. There was no necessity for Ranil W to meet the President just to say they would support the implementation of the 13th Amendment, which any way is law of the land and can not be opposed. It is also absurd now to tell the President the UNP does not reject the APRC totally, for then the UNP could have sat in the APRC when the APRC came with a “Majority Proposal” and could have demanded discussing that with the TNA too.

Such is the confusion in the UNP, the oldest publicly active political party, with a strong vote base in the South, despite election defeats. On the flip side of it, is a Sinhala polity that does not subscribe to chauvinism and ethnic divisions. The most extremist and ferocious Sinhala election campaign in our 60 year history that tested the pulse of the Sinhala polity, was that which brought the entire spectrum of Sinhala political parties and groups together to make Mahinda Rajapaksa President in 2005 November. Yet, with the Tamil vote un-polled, all what this extremist Sinhala campaign could muster from among Sinhala people was a mere 180,786 votes more than the UNP. The UNP don’t seem to understand that of the 4.9 million who voted for Mahinda Rajapaksa, all are not Sinhala chauvinists while the whole 4.7 million that voted for Ranil W, voted despite accusations of supporting the LTTE and for his strength in effecting a CFA.

Most miserably, what the UNP does not want to understand is that, this Sinhala “noise” we hear is only what organised political parties like the JVP and the JUH make with the backing of State media. They gained ground with the UNP falling into back seat of politics, confused over how they should face the defeat. The UNP failed to understand that their defeat at the Presidential elections was their own making, after shying away from taking the CFA and the “negotiations” to the people while in government, thus leaving the entire stage for the JVP, the JHU and President Chandrika Kumaratuge to play dirty politics with Sinhala chauvinism. In short, they do not even for this day understand that a political leadership has the important role of moulding the social psychology in leading the people. What the UNP instead is doing now is pacifying the social psychology the JVP and the JHU moulded and trying to adopt themselves to that Sinhala extremism. Not wanting to be an alternative leadership, President Rajapaksa takes political advantage and leaves the UNP politically redundant.

This reminds me of Michael Moore who still resides in the USA and still feels happy poli-bashing the all powerful President of the USA publicly calling Bush one among “Stupid White Men” who run the country. He takes time to advice the Opposition Democrats in his controversial book by the same name “Stupid White Men” and writes, “Meanwhile, to those Democratic Officials who want to survive the political carnage ahead, I have one piece of advice to you; Quit moonlighting for the competition. That’s my last bit of free advice to the party that sent nine boys from my high school to their graves in Vietnam. If you can’t clean up your act,—-you and the donkey you rode in on.”(p/230) What better advice than that for the “stupid chauvinist men” in the UNP ?

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