President Rajapakse Has Got India On His Side
March 5th, 2008
by Kusal Perera
[President Rajapaksa wirh Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh]
“What allows this government of President Rajapaksa to survive?” This question wasn’t asked one year ago, in the same tone and seriousness, it is asked today. Today, much has changed, locally and internationally in relevance to the Rajapaksa regime. Today, much has changed politically within the government and in the Opposition, within and without parliament. To whose advantage and to whose disadvantage are all these happening ? Very simply, to the advantage of the Rajapaksa regime and to the disadvantage of the people. To all people, in every part of the country. “How” and “why” would be questions that follow.
What ever different assessments there could be, at this very moment, President Rajapaksa is a stronger President than he was in 2007 year end. Today, President Rajapaksa has got the Indians on his side. Or rather, he was smart enough to compromise with the Indians, skinning away his history of being one among those who went against the Indo-SL Accord and thus against the 13th Amendment. He has conveniently forgotten that his SLFP joined the JVP in boycotting the Provincial Councils until Chandrika Kumaratunge came and turned them inside out on the ethnic issue. Today, President Rajapaksa had only to shed his history and grin at the 13th Amendment, for the Indians to say he should adopt the whole of it. President Rajapaksa thus stands for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment and also for total war against the LTTE. So the Indians are there behind him and they had him firmly committed on all that with the Indian NDTV and India Today coming to Colombo to record his full explanation.
This tactical move, though forced on the APRC with Indian advice, had given the Rajapaksa regime plenty of breathing space. It gives them the neighbourly big brother’s financial support and military aid. Economically, although life is in chaos with interest rates left very high and inflation around 26%, all essential consumer goods going up in prices, with only rhetoric about development programmes and the government taking absolutely no notice of heavy corruption that’s endemic by now, there still is some hope left for the government to survive economically with Indian economic inputs. A much needed prop to keep this government alive.
Above that, what President Rajapaksa achieved from this political deal is the Indian cover from international pressure. Let us not under estimate the importance of India in international politics. India got Bush who goes freaky over any nuclear talk to agree to their Nuclear project. That’s their importance now. India had a super delegation of Brits led by PM Gordon Brown and then French President Zarkowsky for its independence celebrations. British PM went on record telling the Indian media he would want India in the UN Security Council and that he would propose it himself. With India’s huge economic growth impact, it would be absurd to keep India out of international politics, was what Brown said. So, with that India on Rajapaksa’s side, one can be left assured there will not be much International pressure even on HR violations, beyond statements. It would therefore be interesting to note why Ban Ki Moon, sent his envoy Angela Kane to report on the workings of UN agencies here and not on charges regarding HR violations by the government, or both the government and the LTTE and why she left the country without meeting any of the Tamil and Muslim political leaders. Meanwhile, let’s also keep in mind that India kept its cool over human rights violations, even at the time when abductions, disappearances and extortions in Colombo were at a peak with Tamil business men of Indian origin falling victim. Therefore it would be worth the wait to see the international community in contact with Indian authorities, water down protests in the future.
From the Indian perspective, that always grudged and nudged when Sri Lanka moved out of its orbit and towards other power blocs, President Rajapaksa came as the best full option. This Rajapaksa regime with its “Dutugemunu dress and Andare antics”, is one of the most isolated regimes, internationally. Its deals with Pakistan and China though disliked by India, were “deals” and nothing political. At home, it’s a strong anti LTTE government, both politically and militarily. This combination of factors suited India to manipulate the Rajapaksa regime to fall in line with them. The cost being economic hand outs and a nod to continue with the war.
On the home front too, the Rajapaksa regime has gained politically. The JVP is in a dilemma they were never in since coming out from the jungles. They’ve misfired on their calculation of trapping Mahinda Rajapaksa as President to live within their draft of “Mahinda Chinthanaya”. Two years with this Rajapaksa regime, their “Chintanaya” has instead caught the JVP between “Stalin’s socialism and Dutugemunu’s nationalism”. Where could the JVP stand between the ever increasing CoL and the war cry ? With President Rajapaksa saying he would strengthen PC’s under the 13th Amendment, the JVP has been bowled out, being themselves present in the PCs. Thus once again their frantic call against Indian products in the local market. Unfortunately for them too, the JHU keeps backing the government, bifurcating the Sinhala ideology they shared together to push the war cry down the throats of Sinhala emotions. All that while undergoing a cultural blow up within the organisation that has divided the leadership into “going soft” and “hitting hard” against the Rajapaksa regime and living with a new lifestyle that’s more than comfortable. The JVP therefore would have to vote en bloc with the Rajapaksa regime in parliament on all crucial issues, though with a grumble.
All that becomes important political factors, when the main Opposition goes into political groaning in half sleep. That again is President Rajapaksa’s most precious gain. This regime in fact survives on the politics of a demoralised and confidence lacking Opposition UNP. The UNP does not know they should have a consistent political platform as the Opposition. Should they play into JVP politics, they are not necessary politically, for one JVP is enough without duplicates. Should they support the Rajapaksa regime that is corrupt, has no policy on anything but that to wage war, then it was in vain the whole UNP did not join the government with the “Karu group”. There was no necessity for Ranil W to meet the President just to say they would support the implementation of the 13th Amendment, which any way is law of the land and can not be opposed. It is also absurd now to tell the President the UNP does not reject the APRC totally, for then the UNP could have sat in the APRC when the APRC came with a “Majority Proposal” and could have demanded discussing that with the TNA too.
Such is the confusion in the UNP, the oldest publicly active political party, with a strong vote base in the South, despite election defeats. On the flip side of it, is a Sinhala polity that does not subscribe to chauvinism and ethnic divisions. The most extremist and ferocious Sinhala election campaign in our 60 year history that tested the pulse of the Sinhala polity, was that which brought the entire spectrum of Sinhala political parties and groups together to make Mahinda Rajapaksa President in 2005 November. Yet, with the Tamil vote un-polled, all what this extremist Sinhala campaign could muster from among Sinhala people was a mere 180,786 votes more than the UNP. The UNP don’t seem to understand that of the 4.9 million who voted for Mahinda Rajapaksa, all are not Sinhala chauvinists while the whole 4.7 million that voted for Ranil W, voted despite accusations of supporting the LTTE and for his strength in effecting a CFA.
Most miserably, what the UNP does not want to understand is that, this Sinhala “noise” we hear is only what organised political parties like the JVP and the JUH make with the backing of State media. They gained ground with the UNP falling into back seat of politics, confused over how they should face the defeat. The UNP failed to understand that their defeat at the Presidential elections was their own making, after shying away from taking the CFA and the “negotiations” to the people while in government, thus leaving the entire stage for the JVP, the JHU and President Chandrika Kumaratuge to play dirty politics with Sinhala chauvinism. In short, they do not even for this day understand that a political leadership has the important role of moulding the social psychology in leading the people. What the UNP instead is doing now is pacifying the social psychology the JVP and the JHU moulded and trying to adopt themselves to that Sinhala extremism. Not wanting to be an alternative leadership, President Rajapaksa takes political advantage and leaves the UNP politically redundant.
This reminds me of Michael Moore who still resides in the USA and still feels happy poli-bashing the all powerful President of the USA publicly calling Bush one among “Stupid White Men” who run the country. He takes time to advice the Opposition Democrats in his controversial book by the same name “Stupid White Men” and writes, “Meanwhile, to those Democratic Officials who want to survive the political carnage ahead, I have one piece of advice to you; Quit moonlighting for the competition. That’s my last bit of free advice to the party that sent nine boys from my high school to their graves in Vietnam. If you can’t clean up your act,—-you and the donkey you rode in on.”(p/230) What better advice than that for the “stupid chauvinist men” in the UNP ?
Entry Filed under: Federalidea
19 Comments Add your own
1. Sam Thambipillai | March 6th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Sri Lanka has got India on its side to be silent when the soldiers exterminate the Tamils of North East. India is content because deterioration of Humaqn values in Sri Lanka will make Indians and the arms industry to prosper. India never cared about the people of Sri Lanka. it was always with the leadership of Sri Lanka, to the detriment of the citizens. India is thus a real hegemonistic enemy of the people of Sri Lanka.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) has described the criminality of the government of Sri Lanka by stating it as “one of the world’s worst perpetrators of enforced disappearances.”
The question which arises in my mind is why are the criminals not yet charged in the International Criminal Court(ICC). Mahinda Rajapakse and Sarath Fonseka should have been arrested, handcuffed and brought to face war crime charges in front of the ICC judges long ago. Why is India condoning with crimes?
The latest victim is the law maker Sivanesan of Jaffna. He even mentioned a few months ago that there were secret plans by the government to assasinate him.
In its 241-page report, “Recurring Nightmare: State Responsibility for ‘Disappearances’ and Abductions in Sri Lanka,” HRW has called on, in particular, India and Japan, to make further military and other non-humanitarian assistance to Sri Lanka contingent on government efforts to halt the practice of ‘disappearances,’ and to end impunity, including its acceptance of an international monitoring mission.
The culprits India and Japan also should be brought before the war crimes court. When genocide happened in Rwanda, France, the country which supplied machettes which were used by Hutu government to murder Tutsis, was charged as a collaborator of the genocide.
On the same basis, India and Japan should be accused for being collaborators in disappearances, murders and displacements of civilians, by the armed forces, in the North East.
2. 2ndClassTamil | March 6th, 2008 at 10:47 am
What is India’s interest in SL is the million-dollar question? I don’t think anyone takes the Indian position that its involvement is purely benign as a friendly neighbour as anything but propaganda. Indian position on the SL issue is - deliberately in my view - very vague if not appearing weak, with a view to keeping all parties guessing. India doesn’t make the noises, which even those western countries that have proscribed the Tigers make loudly! The entire Indian news media has been directed against Tamils. Even on HR issues their media regularly and predictably promotes disinformation. It has controlled the dissent in Tamil Nadu with an iron fist. What is clear is that they have a strong agenda that is not helpful to the Eelam Tamils primarily and also to the Singhalese in the long run, which is best done with a Janus-faced policy, given the sensitivities in Tamil Nadu.
What is the trajectory of the struggle from the Indian point of view? They would be over optimistic - given their Kashmir experience - if they conclude that the cry for Ealam will cease once arms supply routes are cut and the Tigers beaten. But this may be the view of GoSL. And there is some mileage in this. But the North Indian agenda writers will know better not to fan ethno-nationalism again in Tamil Nadu by identifying too closely with GoSL. They would know what would have happened if Tamil Nadu was a nation state in pursuance of its own interests. So, thus far the war has not caused any internal problem to India.
On the external front, the thought of annexing strategically important SL would certainly have crossed the minds of Indian think tanks. But for the present they will pursue everything just short of that. Americans too have given the green light for Indian hegemony in Asia. Making SL more and more dependent on India for all its needs must rank as a main goal. On this count, the war and the associated economic degradation of SL are greatly beneficial to India. They may only be waiting for the ideal opportunity to put forward an irresistible economic, then military and finally a political package - if necessary by buying the politicians
- for the union of SL in stages.
Is it in India’s interest the continuation of the ethnic strife in SL? From the above I conclude in the affirmative.
3. Ratna | March 6th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
It’s always been like this.
From Srimavo to JR and now to MR, they all took India for a ride.
4. m.thiru | March 6th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Kusal Perera is frank and loud in saying MR has got India on his side. The last 60 years Sinhalese leaders have been flirting with India, Pakistan, China, US and few others. Still they have not learned their lessons in how to make Sinhala Nation and Tamil nation within the Island peaceful and prosperous.
But I am not sure about Kusal Perera’s simplified claim “India got Bush to agree to their Nuclear project “.
By and large Indian political thinking is very inferior to US, China, Russia, UK, Japan and Pakistan. India will one day realize how they were made instrumental in making South Asia an economic colony again by global powers but this time with number of global players some new and some old.
South Asians by and large will be economic slaves in their own home lands. Only quislings and petins and their followers will benefit.
If India wants to become stronger politically it must make her component ethnic groups to be stronger within India and South Asia. Tamils belong to one of those groups and India is neglecting the Tamils again. In addition their foreign policies with neighbouring countries are not mutually fair. Sinhala Nation should not fear Tamil nation.
Sinhala nation for her own good must accept Tamil nation’s wishes and live as friendly neighbours in the island so that Sinhala nation can prosper as an independent and stronger nation too without any foreign debts-
5. Indian Tamil | March 6th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Mr.Thiru,
Our political thinking is inferior to even Maldives,libya,sudan,zimbabwe,namibia,somalia…..
6. Suresh M | March 6th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
Indians have been quietly working towards their long term goal of annexing Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka under their security- economic umbrella. The Tamil issue gave them the ample opportunity to get their first installment of security guaranty in 1987, with Sri Lanka.
In the early stages, Santhathiyar of PLOT who was second in command to Uma Maheswaran, had advocated against direct Indian involvement, fearing India’s hidden agenda. He had paid the ultimate price for that, and the PLOT that was the leading militant group in early eighties, was crippled by RAW, knowing they would not listen to India.
Unless Sinhalese wake up to the reality and help resolve the ethnic issue amicably, the whole Sri Lankans are going to be the real losers soon. The Indian monkey is in the process of eating the whole hive that both Sinhala rabbit, and Tamil rabbit have been fighting over.
7. dias | March 7th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
India’s policy towards its southern smaller brother is directly linked to India’s desire to be, or at least appear to be, the region’s super power and also its wish for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. To attain these goals, India knows it has to validate itself to the big boys - mostly to the EU nations and the United States. Part of this validation process is to demonstrate her capacity to bring about regional harmony - but unfortunately the island’s conflict is much in the way of this greater goal. Just imagine how India would look if it indeed she were to take a pro-active role in the Sri Lanka (as did Premier Rajiv Gandhi) and successful in bringing the crisis to a winning conclusion. She desperately wants to, but she can’t.
The latter because India knows no matter what approach she takes each is laden with significant risks. Yet, she as many others are clear that the only resolution to the island’s conflict is a political formula that meets the aspirations of all the communities. How can India best ensure this peaceful outcome, and take credit for a successful role? In early 2006, New Delhi attempted to influence outcome by offering the services of Indian academicians, presumably Political Science experts, to help architect a political framework. The offer was diplomatically declined by the Rajapaksa administration quoting that what ever solution must be “home grown”. The Indians backed-off. Next, along with the Co-chairs the Indians continued her encouragement of the APRC process headed by Dr. Vitharana until that too came to naught. A deep sigh, what now?
However, there appeared a silver lining from an unexpected corner, in the SLDF’s successes in the East. Finally, it seemed the island’s armed forces had developed enough spine to take upon Prahabakaran, and just may be that they will be able to do just that - something at which the Indians themselves had miserably failed. Thus, goes the modified Indian thinking: lets use Rajapaksa and his motivated SLDF to destroy the LTTE leadership and severely weaken the separatist movement so that once these objectives are accomplished, we with the support of the big boys can more effectively move-in on the Sri Lankan establishment to force a political solution. [Of the two, Prahabakaran on one hand, and Rajapaksa’s nationalist coalition, the Indians seem to believe that it is the latter that is less intransigent.] Of course, New Delhi can in no way afford to appear to be cozy with the Rajapaksa administration for fear of Tamil Nadu opposition – and therefore, what ever support New Delhi extends it has to do with extreme caution.
Expect the Indians to continue their nodding to Rajapaksa’s adventure in the North but only in the exclusive hope of destroying the LTTE leadership and its operational backbone. Immediately upon getting SLDF to do her dirty work, expect India to take a visibly leadership role and come down hard on the Sri Lankan government to implement a political solution. India’s job would be made much easier by the enormous pressures that the rest of the IC too will bring upon the Sri Lanka government.
However, if SLDF are unable to achieve its set objectives of taming the Tigers and destroying the LTTE leadership, expect India to continue with its “impotent leader” role with no clear strategy about its role in the island’s conflict - a poor showing for a Regional Power with ambitions for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
8. Indian Tamil | March 7th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Asif Zardari is ready to forego kashmiri issue for now and willing to come under the economic umbrella of India.
So nepal,bangla,SL ,maldives,bhutan and pakistan will fall under India’s security -economic umbrella.Monkey’s long term goal of annexing all these countries willbe realized soon.
9. Gamini | March 8th, 2008 at 8:47 am
This guy Kusal hasn’t missed a single opportunity to get it wrong, open your eyes young man, its not that MR had India on its side its simply that tigers have Indian firmly against it, tends to happen when you kill in cold blood the heir to the dynasty the anointed one, proved firmly and conclusively that the organization is not to be trusted ever again.
10. ilaya seran senguttuvan | March 8th, 2008 at 11:48 am
However, I do not see me in agreement with Kusal when he writes “President Rajapakse is a stronger President today” o
” Rajapakse has got the Indians on his side.” Neither does my reading coincide with Kusal ’s when he says “Rajapakse stands for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment.” Sheer hogwash. Without the merger - removed on a mere technicality and against the spirit of an Accord signed with India - the 13th Amendment is an empty shell.
I also have serious doubts “India forced itself on the APRCC.” As we recall, India came in on the “invitation” of a popularly-elected Lankan President - though everyone is entitled to different interpretations of issues. “So with India on Rajapakse’s side” Kusal incorrectly says “India kept its cool over HR violations - even at the time when abductions, disappearances and extortions in Colombo were at peak.” I am personally aware Indian diplomats here took interest to set right many shocking aberrations on the Lankan security side and have
had several discussions with many at different levels at GoSL expressing their concern in the matter. As to “Ranil met the President to say the UNP will support
the 13th Amendment” my information is Ranil angrily asked Rajapakse why he is bringing the 13th Amendment subject while the whole the country knows this a
UNP creation and is in the Statute since 1987. I also understand Ranil has said not only the 13th amendment but the 17th Amendment - both of which are part of the Constitution - should be implemented without ambiguity or further delay. It is known to many the President “lost his goat”and is said to have shouted he will never allow the 17th Amendment to function.
How does Kusal read the Indian rebuff of PM Man Mohan Singh not obliging with a visit on Feb 04 on our 60th Independence that Minister Bogollogama had assured the Cabinet more than once he has “been able to secure with much difficulty, my
personal diplomacy and persuasion”? This would have been one definite way of showing “India is with Mahinda” as Kusal erroneously claims. Friend, when India rushed to “congratulate GoSL for accepting the 13th Amendment ” as one way out of the impasse, they simply trapped the gullible Rajapakse of
the “celebrated Chintanaya” Poor Mahinda now is caught between the slip he made in Shekar Gupta’s NDTV Programme which he has confirmed in his statements.His invitation to Ranil was to get Ranil at least to say the UNP is against the
13th Amendment - so that Rajapakse can put the blame on Ranil and the UNP. But the whole country and the world knows Ranil has brains and is educated. Now the President is in the
classic kotiyage waligey dilemma - between the gullible admission to India
and the pre-election pledge to the JVP he will not touch
the 13th amendment. This is what happens when you promise to each and every Tom, Dick and Harry all what they ask before an election and try to fool them after winning. The JVP is not going to take things lying down. This is probably why
the uncharismatic Somawansa Amerasinghe threatens
“we will destroy the Govt if they accept the 13th Amendment”
11. nathan | March 8th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Manmohan Singh is helpless against the Repression of the Dalits and millions of Bonded Child Slaves, Multinationals which control prices of seed grain & fertiliser, and thus have caused thousands of farmers to commit suicide, against the bureaucracy which is corrupt & inefficient and prevents releif measures reaching the farmers.
He is also helpless against the Kashmir Rebellion.
India is thus desperately in need of friends in the region. Thus it is conveniant to turn a blind eye to the lankan repressive/corrupt regime and supply arms to prop it up, meanwhile ignoring even the murder of indian fishermen by the SL Navy.
12. Thanuka Perera | March 9th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
India has a superiority complex,they want to bully their neighbours.In 80 es they helped tTamil militants.today they help the SL govt to destroy LTTE,Their could be some consiquence,Delhi always ignored the sentiments of the Tamilnadu people,who knows they dick their own grave.Dont under estimate LTTE,they are still silent. wait and see.
13. N | March 9th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
There is no point arguing that India is always going after its own interests, it is quite obvious, but we cannot blame India because that is how what every country conducts itself.
14. Indian Tamil | March 9th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
India is an impotent power and immature democracy.Manmohan is incapable of managing kashmir,assam,nuclear deal,dalits,bonded child slaves,poverty of 300million ,water distribution,illiteracy,naxals,muslims jihadi,sentiments of TN ,suicide of farmers and protection of TN fisherman.Long list of problems …..
IPKF already lost to LTTE in Eelam soil.Now is the time to attack Indian Army in Indian soil in TN and teach a lesson to them by freeing TN from indian hegemony.
15. Sudalaimadan. | March 10th, 2008 at 8:24 am
What Mr.N.Says is correct.India has problems in her backyard.It is high the Sinhala Thinktanks take stock of the reality and inform the Sinhala masses of the situation.
Of course the L.T.T.E.too need to be flexible.
Will it happen?
16. V Siva | March 10th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
India can no longer boast that they are democratic, respect Human Rights and Rule of Law, a birth place of Mahatma Gandhi and so on.
In the neighbouring Eelam, Tamils are raped, butchered and occpied by the Apartheid Sinhala regime. The brave Rajiv Gandhi sent war planes over Jaffna and Indira Gandhi showed genuine interest in solving Eelam Tamils issue. But today, Sonia Gandhi doesn’t follow the footsteps of either Rajiv or Indira.
One day the young from South India may demand for CHANGE and SEPARATION from North India. The land of former King Chola is powerless today and South Indians are slaves of the North. Wake up South Indians!
17. Indian Tamil | March 11th, 2008 at 9:27 am
#16,
If Sonia follows the footsteps of Rajiv, a similar fate as that of Rajiv would befall her.So she would like to live her life fully,instead of helping SL Tamils like Rajiv.Wake up LTTE!
18. Estavez | March 12th, 2008 at 4:10 am
It looks like The Congress Party is going to lose the next elections and come elections time, Tamil Nadu and many southern states would side with the opposition together with CPI.
Even the elections loss is predicatble to Congress Party, its leadership doesn’t seem to care to stem the trend.
I sinceerly hope the southern states teach congress a good lesson.
19. North indian | April 2nd, 2008 at 7:08 am
what i feel if the war continues is the tamil nation will be brutalised the sinhala nation will move towards a military rule ( now also it is one?). More the India openly side with sinhala forces for crusing the tamils the more it becomes justified for LTTE to finger India through siding with Maoist to create mayhem in Indian soil.
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