A country spins out of control
by Robert Muggah
As civilian deaths in the civil war climb quickly, the government shows no appetite for peace
Sri Lanka is quietly sliding into a humanitarian nightmare. Since the election of the nationalist government of Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2005 and the resumption of war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) late last year, the number of civilian deaths has jumped sharply. In the past six weeks, more than 180 Tamil, Muslim and Sinhalese citizens have been killed, many with bullets through their temples. Reprisal targeting of Sinhalese – usually by way of explosives–is on the rise.
The international donor community is at a loss as to what to do. A Norwegian-brokered ceasefire in early 2002 was expected to usher in a new era of peace after decades of civil war. The United States, Japan, the European Union (EU) and others rapidly introduced carrots and sticks to encourage a serious devolution of power and alleviate suffering. In the wake of the devastating tsunami in late 2004, it was widely hoped that a spirit of reconciliation might emerge from a legacy of tragedy. But these efforts were spectacular failures.
The present government displays little appetite for peace. Much like previous administrations led by Jayawardane, Premadasa or Kumaratunga, Rajapaksa claims that a military solution to the LTTE question is within his grasp. The current government differs in one important respect: It has dropped all pretense to negotiate a political settlement.
When it refused more than $4 billion (U.S.) in conditional aid in favour of war, donors feared they had overplayed their hand. And despite a procession of U.S., Japanese, Norwegian, Canadian and Indian diplomats flying to the capital, Colombo, to address the suffering of civilians, the government refused to implement even cosmetic changes to enhance due process or redress.
The efforts of South Asia’s regional power, India, have yielded comparatively little to stem Sri Lanka’s slide into violence. Although India has long played a Janus-faced role in Sri Lanka, it is alarmed by the contagion effects of the long-running war. The UN Refugee Agency estimates that more than 20,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees are languishing in southern India and thousands more have sought safe haven since the resumption of war. While this has irritated India’s own sizable Tamil population, the Sri Lankan government’s repressive tactics risk triggering militarization in refugee camps and at home.
If the current military strategy does not change course, the Sri Lankan war will likely continue without end. As the daily challenges facing NATO coalition forces in Afghanistan show, while battles may be won, wars are just as easily lost. Sri Lanka’s government does not appear to have learned this lesson. Civilians are paying the price of this war, as direct casualties in the north and east and as the “new poor” due to spiralling inflation and unemployment in the south.
Because the next round of presidential elections is not until April 2010 and the war remains popular with the Sinhalese majority, it is unlikely that the violence will decline in the near term. The government is so heavily invested in the logic of war that any reversal may lose it future votes. Paradoxically, cries of indignation from outsiders, and even from the domestic human rights lobby, may actually strengthen the government’s hand.
The outside world is watching with a sense of deja vu. The war has claimed more than 75,000 lives since the early 1980s, and more than 1 million people have been internally displaced. While horrified by the scale of killing, international donors are exhausted and more inclined to withdraw than pursue strategic engagement. Meanwhile, the domestic opposition is scattered, terrified of being spirited away in the ubiquitous white vans that troll the streets. Short of a spectacular reversal in the military fortunes of either side or a major economic crisis, the situation will likely simmer on.
While the international community should avoid aggravating the situation, there are at least four ways it could potentially keep Sri Lanka from collapsing entirely.
First, cautious diplomatic pressure must continuously be applied in order to convince the government and the LTTE that a military solution is not viable. The international community should recall that it supported the proscription of the LTTE as a “terrorist organization” several years ago. If Western and Eastern governments are to stimulate dialogue, they will need to be sensitive to both parties’ positions and their own role.
Second, if rebuffed, the U.S. and the EU could consider withdrawing the country from the General System of Preferences, which applies reduced taxes and levies to certain Sri Lankan exports, such as tea and textiles. Such a tactic would signal disapproval of the country’s state of governance and could reduce its capacity to wage war.
Third, because there are no international observers to monitor human rights in Sri Lanka, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon could appoint a special envoy to the country. An envoy could begin documenting the scale of armed violence, which is currently under-reported owing to fear, attacks on reporters and self-censorship.
Fourth, given regional implications or even little-used article 99 of the UN Charter, the UN Security Council should be encouraged to take up the issue. On the recommendation of a special envoy, the council can identify political and economic sanctions to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. Perhaps most important, such measures could potentially restrict arms imports to the country.
The human costs are almost certainly set to rise in the coming months. A massive military offensive is being planned that will lead to more deaths and more displacement. Without concerted engagement, the situation will worsen further still. [Courtesy: Toronto Star]
Robert Muggah is research director of the Small Arms Survey in Geneva and is the author of Relocation Failures: A Short History of Internal Displacement and Resettlement in Sri Lanka (forthcoming).
Ratna said,
February 25, 2008 @ 12:56 pm
Robert Muggah is going to be in trouble with Srilankan Government.
I am sure, by now Srilankan President must have given green signal to his ally JVP to burn Robert Muggah’s effigy.
2ndClassTamil said,
February 25, 2008 @ 7:41 pm
The first thing the west can do is to de-proscribe the Tigers. The proscription lead by Janus-faced India and US was to serve their interests. Some instances of poor tactical or strategic decisions should not be held against a conventional armed group to call as terrorists. Some states too have committed such errors of judgement and action. LTTE are a group that brought the GoSL to a CFA agreement purely by their military capability. Branding it as a terrorist organisation is senseless, if not a joke. As Bala Tampoe had highlighted:
“LTTE has gained control over many parts of North and East by military means; not by terrorism. They have used guerrilla warfare, subsequently even using land warfare using conventional forces. Seizing Elephant pass is not terrorism. Seizing Mullaiththeevu and destroying thousands of army people there is not terrorism. They were highly successful military victories they achieved.
The IC must realise that the Tamils view with total suspicion the stand taken by them in proscribing the LTTE, especially when it had not posed any threat to their citizens, property or even to their interests. Whatever the powerful propagandist say to besmirch the LTTE, history will record its steadfastness in the struggle for the freedom of Tamils based on their right of self-determination in their homeland.
Tamils have no problem when the IC condemns the Tigers on some issues (or keeps mum on others as they have often done). By and large the Tigers have taken on board their criticism – for example keeping away from civilian targets for may years prior to 2007 and even now, under intense provocation of indiscriminate aerial bombing by SLAF and long range shelling by the army causing untold, undocumented death and destruction in the Tamil homeland.
The Tamils know that the one sided sanctions by the IC on the Tigers can only lead to more killing and genocide of the Tamils at the hands of the chauvinistic regime. The IC cannot absolve responsibility for the present militaristic policy taken by the govt to defeat the Tigers at all cost, when it tacitly nods in support of GoSL. Amongst the Tamils the jury is out as to whether GoSL and the IC are pursuing the same goal. It will be sad indeed if the IC had evaluated the resolve of the Tamils based on people like Devananda, Sangaree, Karuna or Pillaiyan. Though I welcome the writer’s call for arms sanction on GoSL at this late hour, it is always laughable when one is wise after the event.
Devinda Fernando said,
February 25, 2008 @ 8:13 pm
Spins out of control….? Where do these people get these words and phrases from? Exactly what is Out of Control about it? Yes, we are at war,…no surprise there, we’ve been at war for 25 years…life still goes on. It will get worse before it gets better, I wish these Bleeding Heart commentators keep their thoughts to theimselves.
When you use a phrase like: “As civilian deaths in the civil war climb quickly, the government shows no appetite for peace”
Yeah,…thats the whole point, a Government is not supposed to concede Defeat because they experience a rise in Civilian Deaths…. As if this Lunatic actually thinks we should be equating the cessation of a war to the Amount of Civilian Deaths? If that were the rules of Warfare then the LTTE would simply kill as many civilians as possible to end the war..?
The war ends when one side wins. Please be patient that outcome is coming soon.
Jey P said,
February 25, 2008 @ 10:52 pm
Interesting points. The question is will history repeat itself the way the Author suggests it might? Didn’t Hitler forget to look at the problem Napoleon faced on the Russian front in the middle of winter? How man innocents will die before pride and lust for revenge is satisfied?
Stalemate anyone?
Nexus said,
February 26, 2008 @ 9:38 am
Toronto Star, explains a lot.
I am sure they have to put one of these articles every week to appease the Scarborough readers.
Judging by the ‘expert’ they have pulled for this fluff piece it must be getting harder and harder to get a real academic to write one sided b/s like this guy has managed. The Star is scraping the bottom of the barrel printing this kind of drivel under the pretense of journalism.
Lester said,
February 26, 2008 @ 9:39 am
I didn’t Robert Mugabe is was living in Geneva ?
Dr. Kodituwakku said,
February 26, 2008 @ 2:31 pm
# 5 Nexus.
Don’t bark at the moon.
Soon, you and your GOSL will be sidelined by the International Community for it’s ignorance and stupidity.
“Constructive Criticism” is good. We should learn from our mistakes.
What are we going to achieve through this prolonged conflict?, Wouldn’t it to be nicer to solve this through a “Federal System” where Tamils can mind their own business? instead of pumping billions and billions in to the drain with this un-comprehensible war.
The future generation will be ones going to suffer due to this ignorant conflict. Our Trains, Hospitals, Schools and infrastructures all need major overhaul, but unfortunately, we are getting further buried in this “Un winnable War” quagmire!
I wish late Brigadier Larry Wijeratne was still alive.
He was the one of few SLA Brigadiers who made wise decisions regarding this ethnic conflict.
Easwaran said,
February 26, 2008 @ 8:32 pm
What garbage this article is, I thought the Star was broadsheet not a two bit tabloid, one would have to question that assumption if they keep printing uniformed nonsense such as this lot, all hyperbole no facts or analysis of the situation.
We can all read between the lines this guy is doing the begging for the tigers to get them de proscribed so they can go on their merry way. The truth is they are a ruthless organisation that are pioneers in terrorism one only need to see the weekly bus bombs targetting civilians to see why this guy has no sense of realty or understanding of the situation.
I am sure Mr Mugabe’s book will give the long version of the uniformed clap trap he writes in this article.
Dulip said,
February 26, 2008 @ 8:37 pm
Mugah is begging for his supper so he can sell more books in Canada to the tiger sympathisers, I doubt even if they beleive this guy has any credentials to speak intelligently about Sri Lanka.