Victory in PC Elections, a Vote for War or Yearning for Peace?
By Col.
As the results of the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provincial Council elections streamed in, it was clear that Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa has turned his continued success in war to pay political dividends. The ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) scored resounding success capturing 20 of the 33 seats (securing 56.37% of votes) in Sabaragamuwa Province, and 25 of the 44 seats (securing 65.53% votes) in North Central Province.
The immediate reaction to the results would be to call it a vote for war, as Western Province Governor Alavi Mowlana had done. He said the people of the two provinces gave their verdict “for the Government and the Security Forces to continue military operations against the LTTE to liberate the people living in the grip of LTTE tyranny and to usher peace.” Probably this statement marked only his exultation at his party’s victory rather than on its implications. Because it would also imply that over 40% of the people who voted against the UPFA were against the war and for peace. Both the conclusions would be narrow, because contrary to what some leaders of UPFA declared before the election this was no referendum for war.
The voting was not solely based on war and peace issues but also on many other grievances of the common man particularly the shooting cost of fuel, and other essential day to day needs.
President Rajapaksa saw the election victory in a broader perspective as “the new people’s mandate given to the Mahinda Chinthana.” Undoubtedly, the election victory though flawed by violence during the campaign period, was a clear signal of majority support for the President’s way of doing things despite its weaknesses and shortcomings. It equally reflected the inability of the opposition to throw up a leader who could rally the masses to challenge President Rajapaksa.
The Morning Leader, Colombo had some interesting poll analysis. It pointed out that despite its apparently unimpressive performance the opposition United National Party (UNP) has not done badly in comparison with the 2004 PC elections. The comparative performance of the UPFA and the UNP in both the 2004 and current elections were as under:
1. Sabaragamuwa Province. UPFA UNP
Votes gained in 2008 elections: 74000 111000
Seats gained in 2008 elections: (-) 3 (+) 2
2. North Central Province. UPFA UNP
Votes gained in 2008 elections: 22000 62000
Seats gained in 2008 elections: (-) 2 (+) 2
This would indicate that the UNP’s voters are in tact despite its inability to make dramatic improvement in its political performance. At the same time the voters have indicated their wish to continue with the UPFA agenda.
Some of the other useful pointers of the election results are -
• This is a green signal for the President to carry forward the military operations in the present fashion, as the peace constituency is yet to stage a 2002-style comeback.
• Though the election victories indicate a favourable environment for the UPFA to call for a general election, they also indicate there is no urgency for the President to do so. He can do this at a time of his choosing perhaps when he reduces the LTTE strength to make it a marginal player sometime next year.
• The rallying of Sinhala voters behind the President at the cost of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) represents the cutting down to size of the JVP. It had been eating into the traditional Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) pastures during the last few years. The election results also reduce the JVP’s ability to pressurize the ruling coalition to toe its line. (This is remarkably similar to the sidelining of the Indian Leftists’ influence in the Centre ever since they lost their showdown with Manmohan Singh government in the Indian parliament over the India-US nuclear deal).
• Similarly the election results show the declining fortunes of the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC), and the Upcountry Peoples Front (UPF) among the Plantation Tamils, who have a strong presence in two constituencies of Sabaragamuwa Province. The success of the Western Peoples Front (WPF) contesting in alliance with the UNP could result in further erosion of influence of CWC within the ruling coalition.
Peace rather than war beckons
With a clear mandate in his favour, and freed of the shackles of JVP conditional support, the President has a unique opportunity to not only progress the war to its natural conclusion but also to bring lasting peace. This involves speeding up the process of the devolution of powers to the provincial councils as prescribed in the 13th amendment as a part of larger vision for ushering in peace that has to be beyond capturing Kilinochchi.
The development of the Eastern Province stands as a mute testimony to averments of the President’s in the Mahinda Chintana not yet translated into action. Its promise of equitable treatment of all people regardless of their class, creed or language is still tangled in loops of politicking, vote bank politics and negative influences. The chief minister in the east is yet to gain many of the powers promised in the 13th amendment.
The huge number of civilians fleeing the northern battlefields is now estimated at 175,000. And they are converging on Kilinochchi. They are the visible indicator of the unmapped agenda that is building up for an action plan after the guns go silent. For lasting peace, it has to go well beyond short term measures that would provide only a face lift for the government and not the affected people. Is the government ready with such a plan? Only time will tell.
Already, there are indications that the LTTE is slowly but surely staging a comeback in the east. The ruling Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) has spoken about increasing LTTE intelligence operations in the Kanjikudichcharu area. Other sources have also confirmed the growing presence of LTTE elements there. It would be no different in the north after the LTTE is driven out from Kilinochchi to the bush at great human cost.
This only underlines that winning the war against the insurgents is well beyond battle field victories and capture of territories. Though these are essential for defeating the LTTE, unless its ability to capture the minds of the population is rooted out, the victories would not be lasting. That could come only through a peace architecture that would make the LTTE’s armed conflict irrelevant. The Army Commander, a veteran of the conflict, knows this home truth as much as the President, the master strategist, does.
Overall, the electoral mandate given to the President is as much to usher in permanent peace as pursue the war. We can only hope they build a peace agenda with the same vigour they did for the war.
5 Comments
Col.Hari has correctly queried whether the government is ready with a plan go well beyond short term measures that would provide a face lift for the government.
Though the results indicate the verdict “for the Government and the Security Forces to continue military operations, it has to be analyzed in the context of the intimidation of Sinhalese and Indian Tamil voters, the misuse of government vehicles and the attacks on the UNP supporters, etc. The voting was solely based on war because of the continuing military success over the LTTE. Had it been on other grievances such as high cost of living without violence, it would have been the other way. One should not forget that after the 2nd World War, Sir Winston Churchill could not win the election.
As such the President will be keen to carry out the military operation. However, the LTTE had overturned the happiness of Mahinda Rajapakse with the unexpected air strike at Trincomalee Naval Base and the breaking of the Batticaloa Prison (signaling they are still active) all of which have nullified the emergence of the moderate Tamils for a political compromise. In addition, the Tamils are not in favour with the Government given the fact that the NGOs are denied to have access to those IDPs to provide the basic needs. Though the ruling TMVP spoke about increasing LTTE intelligence operations in the Kanjikudichcharu area, it is a fact that the LTTE’s agents are within the TMVP and the tumbling of the TMVP cannot be overruled.
The controversial question is whether President is prepared to voice out his proposal like a statesman when he assumed power in 2005 on appeals to Sinhalese nationalism with Mahinda Chintana. However these two Provincial polls cannot be treated as referendums on the government. There is reservation that the war with the LTTE will be confined to North but to Colombo as well which will be seen in the coming months.
A.Rajasingam
In the "liberated east", paramilitaries of EPDP and TMVP are roaming armed and there are clashes between both.
The STF even now terrorise the citizens. Assaults, abductions, killings and disappearances of civilians are occurring.
This is NOT the 'peace' for which people voted.
So, where is the peace agenda?
The election results show that people are dissatisfied with this government over war, judiciary, collective punishment and genocide of Tamils in the North East
The question that arises in any person's mind, who desires justice is, whether there could be responsibility and accountability from the judges in Sri Lanka(SL) and fairness in the judicial process of the country, when the persons who are arrested, tortured and detained for long periods of time are mainly Tamils and the judges are Sinhalese.
A Chief Justice once said "Judges are responsible for what they do and as such are not above criticism. Criticism in itself is not wrong as long as it does not impair the administration of justice."
Therefore, a culture of injustice to Tamils is vehemently criticisable, especially when the rut filters from the very top.
Most persons are aware that the Sri Lankan state practices oppression and ethnic discrimination against Tamils. Political appointment of judges makes them to please their political masters in their decision making and use a long judicial stick on Tamils.
Consequently, judges fail to be good custodians of the rule of law and there is a rotten judiciary, arisisng from a subtle form of Anti Tamilism.
The Sri Lankan state is aggressively involved in the ugly process of collective punishment and terror on Tamil civilians especially, the Tamil journalists. This dirty policy has filtered into the judiciary and the Tamils are powerless to prevent any injustice whatsoever.
The Government Of Sri Lanka(GOSL) refused to cooperate with the judges from IGEP appointed by the Commonwealth, when skeletons of injustices to Tamils were found in the cupboard of judiciary in SL
The UN Human rights Council recently observed that the judicial process was virtually non existent for Tamils in SL and that no single case of Tamil torture, murder, rape and disappearances made by the soldiers was brought to court by the GOSL.
The UN therefore suggested to send Human Rights Monitors but the GOSL turned down the proposal fearing that more skeletons would be found in more cupboards.
GOSL was willing to be kicked out of UNHRC rather than allowing Human Rights Monitors to supervise rights violations and provide justice to Tamils.
Therefore, any person analysing the arrest, torture, detention and trial of journalist Tissanayagam and many others languishing in horror detention centres like Boosa should have these aspects in mind, to be realistic in their approach.
In a nutshell, what the GOSL tries to do is to massage the ego of the Sinhalese for its journey of collective punishment and genocide of Tamils. The cruel and illegal acts of the GOSL are sidelined by a pro Sinhalese and anti Tamil judicial process.
Nelson Mandela faced utter humiliation as a prisoner for 27 years when a judiciary, similar to that found in SL now, prevailed then in South Africa. Many blacks faced similar situations of scare and humiliation from that evil judiciary.
To end the rotten judiciary, Mandela and most blacks in South Africa turned their faces to the God of justice, the ultimate judge and not to the perpetrators, whom they decided to forgive freely. The wheels of justice of God turned slowly but surely.
Similarly, the Tamil brothers and sisters in custody in SL, should take this opportunity to plug on to the power of God, on whose laws, the present justice system was started in our island about 200 years ago, and forgive freely all those who are cruel and unjust.
The walls of injustice will definitely come down crashing suddenly to the astonishment of all.
The election was carried out to obtain mandate for genocide of Tamils in the North East.
The UN convention on genocide of 1948, described genocide as a crime against humanity. Unfortunately, such a horrible crime rarely received deserving timely action from the UN, let alone disappearances, whenever it occurred in different parts of the world.
In Bosnia, Rwanda and Darfur, rather than prevention of genocide and disappearances, the punishment of the offenders was done by the UN. That too, after the crime had taken its full course to destroy a part of humanity.
Sri Lanka(SL) is a failed state in conflict resolution and preserving human rights. We have no pedigree to resolve conflicts and presrve Human Rights. Observing that there were very high levels of gross Human Rights violations with impunity, prevailing in the North East(NE), the UN Human Rights Council was willing to help the citizens of SL with Human Rights Monitors. But the Government of Sri Lanka(GOSL) was defiant to the suggestion.
The defiance of Mahinda Rajapakse was similar to the defiance of Omar Al Bashir, the president of Sudan, who is now issued with an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.
Culprits, for fear of being caught and brought to justice often "take to their heels". This is exactly what happened in Sudan and is happening in SL.
The former Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic "ran away" from arrest for more than 10 years but is facing charges in the Hague now, for genocide in Bosnia. Mahinda and his ilk may like to "run" for 20 years if they can.
The "running away" game from the UN Human Rights Monitors is not helping the citizens of SL at all. The siege of Kilinochchi now is similar to the siege of Sarajevo about 10 years ago. A humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Kilinochchi and Vavuniya. This has been reported to the UN Secretary General by Fr James Pathinathan, the President of the Vanni Branch of the Justice and Peace Commission.
The UN should prevent, at all cost, any repetition of the mistakes made in Rwanda, Bosnia or Sudan. Three important steps by the UN appear to be very urgent now.
Firstly, the UN should send a responsible person like the Chief of the Human Rightss Council, to undertake a tour of the internally displaced persons' camps and hear directly from them, the incidents of violations of International humanitarian law and Human Rights law that have occured in Kilinochchi and Vavuniya.
Secondly, From his observations, the special representative of the UN should report to the UN Security Council his findings, so that, it could give an ultimatum to the GOSL to stem the civilian sufferings caused at Kilinochchi and Vavuniya.
Thirdly, a UN investigation should be launched into all violations of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights Law that have occured in the NE during the past years.
The foolish allow the ugliness of history to repeat itself but the wise prevent its recurrence. Humanity should venture to create pleasant history than allowing history to repeat its ugliness.
India is the most dishonest state among those who are interfering in SriLanka. It has such a shameful attitude, even the killing of their own fisherman does not cause a reaction.Even when Rajeev Gandhi was hit by the Sinhalese soldier the Indians sheepishly ignored it. All for the financial gains to be earned in doing business and keeping Srilanka from falling into the hands of Pakistan. But soon India will learn its lessson