All that because the main Opposition, the UNP is no match politically to understand and positively react to the Rajapaksa doctrine of “war at any cost to survive” politics in governance, which is different to the same doctrine carried while in the Opposition and against a leader who markets it with State power. In an election where the voter is well aware the government wouldn’t change, this holds more water. There would be very little “anti - government” sentiments at play in these elections. Very little, because there is no Opposition to the government, on its major survival issue.

[File pic, at a UNP office pic: courtesy Ajith Perera]

This raises the question, “what is the political slogan” of the UNP at these elections? To come up with a political slogan, one should understand the politics behind these elections. This government has proved it has no capacity to manage a national economy. Despite what the CB Governor says, the “felt inflation” in society is very much higher than the declared 30 per cent. The bank borrowing rates pitched at 22 percent cuts back heavily on private sector investments. Without investments in a market economy, the State alone cannot generate enough employment other than through war, which is counter productive. Huge wastes and rampant corruption at the highest levels make the economy far worse than it would anyway limp into. The government is compelled to repair its credibility and its image before the situation worsens and goes beyond repairs.

Again, this President, if not the government, never ever promised a war at any time in their Presidential Campaign. The promise was spelt out as “Honourable Peace”; the 2005 November Presidential aspirant Rajapaksa promising he would go an extra kilometre to Kilinochchi. He would talk peace with Prabhakaran himself and promised everything would be done within a single year. Of course, all the rhetoric that cushioned the promise of an honourable peace, within a “Unitary State” smelt of gun powder and roared like mortars. Nevertheless, the promise for peace being a strong one, the government had to put up a bold face in switching gears to wage war as soon as this President assumed office. That was almost two and a half years – 30 months – ago.

Within these 30 months, schedules put out many times by many high rankers to conclude war had been altered many a time. The numbers of Tiger cadre killed in action and otherwise, has now reached over 7,000 since Mavil-Aru, discounting another couple of thousands immobilized, due to injuries. Yet the war continues with only an extended promise. The government is therefore compelled to repair its image before the situation worsens and goes beyond repair, especially in the face of an aggravating economy.

To date the social psyche had been moulded and held through a controlled media intervention by the ruling regime, where the private media had been stymied and tamed to suit the war needs and the war Generals. This approach in governance over time inevitably leads to a militarization of the society and a break down in civil life. In a corrupt and unusually politicised society, any war with extensive security measures leads to arbitrary and corrupt practices at most levels within the defence establishment. The danger is that the war psyche created makes them powerful and leaves them with a patriotic immunity that allows no questioning. That’s reason why, even the UNP remains dumb over all the Human Rights violations that bleeds this society.

The President realises this government needs renewed approval by the people before its social grip gives way. It needs to prove to the world at large that its political role has a legitimacy and the mandate of the people. That plainly is the reason for the hurried PC elections. The President has already bagged the Eastern Province with all that talk about armed thuggery, mass rigging and misuse of State resources going naturally dead and the Opposition too getting set with the Provincial Council work forgetting their own protests.

[Stage of a recent JVP rally in Kegalle, pic: jvpsrilanka.com]

These two PC’s would further bolster this government’s image for sure. The UNP that started off disastrously cannot in any way lift the war troubled NCP with a war veteran projected as the Chief Minister. Although the UNP thinks it could challenge the government with a war veteran, they are only succumbing to the war psyche of the Rajapaksa regime and that wouldn’t help in winning. On the other hand, what purpose is his war experience as a Chief Minister in a plain civilian job? What is the strategy in Sabaragamuwa? The UNP clearly proves it has no consistency in its politics with Ramanayake projecting a different image of his own. And both have no plans for provincial development either. Nor has the UNP leadership any set plan with a strong political message to challenge the government.

The UNP perhaps expects the JVP to scrounge a sizeable vote bag that would push the government into difficulty. Unfortunately, the JVP is fast losing its credibility and they wouldn’t get the numbers they polled alone at the 2006 Local Government polls when they polled 17 per cent in Anuradhapura and 9 percent in Ratnapura districts. Today, they have to abide with the government’s overall war strategy and anything else to challenge this government goes obsolete. The cry is for continued war and that’s where the JVP is trapped in their own noose. What relevance has the JVP if they too stand for war, for the voters to choose them? Let’s not expect anything more than half they polled then and that’s what President Rajapaksa would also prove at this election. That he does not want the JVP to win.

What would happen to Sri Lanka thereafter? Immediately, the UNP would plunge into further crisis that would be simply personal than political. Their crisis all through these years had been their total inability to politically assess their own performances at elections. With the UNP unable to find peace among themselves, the President may go ahead with the rest of the PC elections before the year is out and successfully prove the South and the East is with him. Such public endorsement amidst a demoralised and devastated Opposition, would allow the government to crush every opposition to its rule. The JVP that would anyway have to pull its cadres out onto the streets would have to face the brunt of the oppressive machinery, unfortunately without much solidarity from any front. It would mean all defeats at PC elections would lead to a more oppressive government.

[Leaders of SAARC Nations at the Colombo Summit-Photo: Yamuni Rashmika]

Regionally, the government would not be alone to push its agenda of war and suppression of rights. Pakistan would have to back Sri Lanka with the escalation of Islamic terror brewing in its own belly and Afghanistan tormented by the Talibans. Pakistan in fact pledged its support to Sri Lanka in military assistance at the SAARC. Dr. Manmohan Singh too had to back the call against terrorism at the SAARC floor with frequent serial bombings in its major cities and its Kabul Embassy coming under a severe terrorist attack, whatever its perception is on the Pakistani ISI. India also heading towards an election would not be too aggressive with Sri Lanka that professes to punish the LTTE that killed Rajiv Gandhi. All that with a budget that may provide a few edible crumbs to the South, bolstered by Chinese assistance that seeks to keep the Indians at bay, President Rajapaksa could with all confidence go for a general election and wrest a cleaner parliamentary majority with a more cohesive entity. And, of course, with Gotabhaya in parliament to be the next Deputy in war.

All that would be on more hyped and stronger campaigning for defeat of LTTE terrorism, and in all probability to end up with a government that would have more military muscle in its decision making. A government that would not allow space for criticism and dissent on platforms, pushing the JVP to extremes for its own survival. The future thus would gradually turn bleak after the two PC elections, but would keep all waiting with clasped hands expecting a better future sans terrorism and terrorists.